Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

FastForward Radio — The Attitude of Gratitude

This week the US celebrates Thanksgiving, our
annual festival of overeating, football, getting together with friends and loved ones, and
attempting to blow ourselves up with turkey fryers.

Thanksgiving is also a time when people take a moment to reflect on
what they have to be grateful for. In that spirit, Phil and Stephen
review the Extremely Good News checklist and talk about the progress that we are making against it.

Here’s that article about the benefits of gratitude.

Preserving and Nurturing the Biosphere

1.Methods of production that generate zero pollutants

2.Energy sources that produce zero pollutants

3.Reversing of previous environmental damage

4.Human population levels with zero negative environmental impact

5.Preservation of natural habitat for all living species

6.The long-term survival of all living species

7.The retrieval of lost species

8.The creation of new species and new biospheres

Standards of Living

1.Eradication of hunger worldwide

2.Adequate clean water, housing, clothing, for all

3.Medical care for all

4.Access to technology and knowledge for all who want it

5.Total economic independence for individuals and groups who desire it

Indefinite Human Lifespan

1.Eradication of aging and infectious disease

2.Quick, effective treatment for any kind of cancer

3.Effective prevention/cures for heart disease, diabetes, other chronic diseases

4.Suspension of life not sustainable by current means

5.The transfer of human consciousness to new media

Work

1.Work necessary for economic viability, not for economic survival

2.Continued blurring of line between work and play

3.Full immersion VR to eliminate distance

4.Artificial Intelligences to assist us in work

Recreation

1.Artificial Intelligences to entertain and befriend us

2.Full immersion VR to simulate any experience

3.Consumer model of entertainment rivaled by producer/participant model

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When the Machines Take Over

This Donkey Kong level demonstrates extensive ...

Image via Wikipedia

There is something profound happening, here — something with implications far beyond the world of Donkey Kong:

For example, let’s say you’re jumping Donkey Kong through a particularly difficult level. Die eight consecutive times and a pop-up screen will ask if you want to activate Super Guide. Once initiated, you can then watch a computer-controlled doppelganger navigate the level for you. At any time, players can regain controls with the push of a button — or what the heck, just let the guide finish the level for you.

Some might worry about whether an auto-pilot function is cheating (or whether it makes computer games an even bigger waste of time than they already are.) If you let the machine take over, you’re assuming a passive role. In such a role, your ability to think and act — your very participation — no longer matter.

I wonder if such worries are akin to worrying that calculators might weaken our math skills — which was a big concern a few decades ago when they were first introduced into classrooms. Or maybe it’s like worrying that spelling checkers will make us less literate. Of course, spelling checkers don’t typically write paragraphs (or entire essays) for students. And I’ve not heard of a calculator taking over and finishing anyone’s SATs for them.

Isn’t it interesting that no one has ever worried (that I’ve heard, anyway) that GPS systems might serve to dull our innate ability to find things? And what about this?

Where’s the worry that we’re going to lose our crucial parallel parking skills? Oh, wait; it’s right here: the top comment on this Youtube page is someone grousing that humanity has become “too dang lazy.”

I’m not so sure. That “laziness” is what we invented technology for in the first place: to give us leverage. Technology exists to put things that are outside the sphere of our capability into that sphere and to make the activities that are inside that sphere easier and more productive.

If some computer games become completely machine-driven with no user interaction (a scenario I find highly implausible) then what you’ve got is essentially a person watching a really uninteresting movie — or at least it would be uninteresting to me. It’s not a sign of human evolutionary regression, it’s just an instance of one entertainment medium falling back to an earlier form.

But most gamers don’t play games just to “see how it ends.” They want to get there.So what we’re seeing with self-playing games is an enhanced collaboration between the user and the machine. In a gaming context, having the machine take over or show you how to do something is really only interesting if you plan to take the controls back yourself at some point.

On the other hand, we may soon reach a point where we’re not just trusting our vehicles to do the parallel parking for us — we’ll let them do all the driving. As a result, our streets and highways will become vastly safer and more efficient. However, as passengers in self-driven cars we won’t just be passive observers of what the car is doing. Our drive time will be an opportunity to interact with others in the vehicle, to read, listen to music, blog, watch TV…or perhaps sharpen our skills in some elaborate computer driving game. And yes, while playing that game in a vehicle being driven by a computer, we might from time to time let the computer take over driving the simulation as well, but always with an eye to taking over again somewhere down the road.

It sounds shocking: we turn some activities over to the machines altogether; others we swap off with them, back and forth. Actually, there’s nothing shocking about that. This is exactly the world we live in now. I let a computer take over most of the heavy lifting involved in an archaic process called “balancing my checkbook” years ago. A closely related task, paying bills, is one I swap off with the computer.

How far will this go? It’s hard to say. As computers become more sophisticated, we will see more and more, and increasingly complex, tasks handed off to them either temporarily or permanently. Will we one day reach a point where it seems only natural to hand control over to a trusted digital friend when our careers or personal relationships start to get sticky? Just like a really difficult level in a computer game, right? Give the computer temporary control and then you can step back in later when things have calmed down a bit.

I don’t know: that starts to sound like “too dang lazy” territory even to me. But take it a step further. Given the choice, would some people go on full autopilot with their entire lives — relinquishing all decisions to the machines and reducing their own role to that of a spectator?

I certainly wouldn’t want to do that, but I can see the appeal.

What if a computer program came along that was as good at living your life — as measured by achieving the outcomes that you most desire — as a calculator is at figuring out square roots, or as the examples above are at playing Donkey Kong Country or parallel parking? Maybe you wouldn’t just relinquish control to it, but I bet you would at least want to know what is has to say. 

UPDATE: Take the survey. Thanks for the link, Glenn!

 

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What We Can Measure

Business Process Reengineering Cycle

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Many years ago I was involved in implementing TQM (total quality management) and BPR (business process re-engineering) programs for a large telecom company. Such programs are about applying a rigorous, fact-driven methodology  to achieving better results in business. Typically, when implementing TQM or BPR, organizations put teams in place to solve problems or streamline processes. These teams gather facts, propose hypotheses, implement potential fixes, and carefully measure the results. When the results are positive, the organization is that much closer to achieving Total Quality (or the Business Process has been Re-Engineered — depending on which methodology you’re using.)

One of the hallmarks of these programs — which I think survive today primarily in the Six Sigma movement — was endlessly rattling off jargon reduced to abbreviations, which we referred to as “acronyms,” although only some of them were. Technically, TQM and BPR are just abbreviations, whereas our criteria for evaluating goals, RUMBA — goals must be Reasonable, Understandable, Measurable, Believable, and Achievable — was an acronym.

As an English major, this is a huge issue for me, but perhaps a bit of a digression for present purposes.

Another hallmark of these programs was the seemingly endless amount of business folk wisdom that people involved therein were capable of spewing. Some of this was borrowed from the self-help world — “Do you want to be a Hero or a Zero?” — while some was native to the world of Total Quality. One of my favorites, which I used at work just yesterday, goes like this:

We cannot improve what we cannot measure.

I’m not sure, but W. Edwards Deming himself, the high priest / patron saint of business process improvement, may have said that.

There are pedantic arguments that can be made against this credo, but on the whole I think it holds up pretty well. If we want to improve something, we need a baseline understanding of its current condition and a means of gauging any changes that we cause to occur.

All of which leads me to Kevin Kelly and the quantified self. I had never heard of this idea until Christine Peterson mentioned it a couple of months ago on the podcast in the context of plugging her then-upcoming Personalized Life Extension conference. One of the tracks at the conference was Self-Experimentation, a process whereby people try out various means of improving their health and extending their lives. Like one-person Total Quality teams, these self-experimenters use highly a highly disciplined approach and keep careful records of the results of their efforts.

They are looking to improve what they very much can measure. Kevin Kelly tracks these kinds of efforts and tools developed to support them via his blog, the Quantified Self:

Quantified Self is a collaboration of users and tool makers who share an interest in self knowledge through self-tracking. We exchange information about our personal projects, the tools we use, tips we’ve gleaned, lessons we’ve learned here at our group blog.

You would be amazed to see how many such tools are out there. Our lives are subject to our own observation and measurement like never before. The question is, can all this data collection and tracking lead to truly improved lives?

 Well, it can. But we have to be careful. We can’t improve what we can’t measure, but measuring alone doesn’t necessarily lead to any sustained or lasting improvements. Consider the number of people who weigh themselves regularly versus the number who actually lose any weight.

One of my favorite sites in this vein — oddly not included in Kelly’s list, is Zapoint.com, which provides tools for mapping out one’s skills, education, and work history via an elegant set of web dashboards and analytics tools. The result kind of leaves the old idea of the resume in the dust. Here are my skills mapped against a timeline of professional, educational, and personal achievements showing where each skill was used and developed:

PhilAnalytics.jpg

Click on the picture to get more detail or go here to learn more about me than you might be interested in finding out.

This is not a bad snapshot of my life. I believe such a presentation of the pertinent data really can help me to make improvements going forward. And actually, as I commented recently to Zapoint’s  CEO and founder, Chris Twyman (an old friend), what I really think is missing from this picture is all the stuff to the right of the present.

We can’t measure the future, but we can estimate it based on the past. I think an increasingly important aspect of these tools that serve to quantify our lives will be how thoroughly (and accurately) they help us to guide our lives to the next step.

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Scientific Evidence for Precognition?

So here’s the deal: a psychologist is about to publish results of a battery of tests conducted over a number of years which seem to demonstrate a small, but apparently statistically valid, tendency for some test subjects to accurately predict the future:

It describes a series of experiments involving more than 1000 student
volunteers. In most of the tests, Bem took well-studied psychological
phenomena and simply reversed the sequence, so that the event generally
interpreted as the cause happened after the tested behaviour rather
than before it.

 The guy is a real scientist and he’s publishing in a real scientific journal . And the story, as you saw if you followed the link, was published in New Scientist.

None of that makes it true, of course. It does appear that the researcher, Darryl Bem of Cornell University, has taken great care in trying to create a valid test and ensuring that the results are real.

So what does this all mean? You tell me.

Results here. (Use links to see results for all questions.)

Use the blog comments to provide additional thoughts. If you have trouble logging into the commenting system (apparently some do) you can also use your Yahoo, Google, or Facebook account.

FastForward Radio — Alex Lightman and the 2010 Innovation Awards

Phil and Stephen welcome author and futurist Alex Lightman back to FastForward Radio. Alex is one of the recipients of the Economist’s 2010 Innovation Awards.

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About our guest:

Alex Lightman is an author, entrepreneur, and futurist, who has
made significant contributions to the adoption of IPv6, 4G wireless
broadband, wearable computers, and augmented reality. He has authored
several books on technology and society. His book ‘Brave New Unwired
World: The Digital Big Bang and the Infinite Internet’ was the first
ever published on the subject of 4G wireless technology.

In the last three weeks, he published “Reconciliation: 78 Reasons to End the US Embargo of Cuba” and, on Oct. 21, received the
first Economist magazine Reader’s Award, given for “the innovation that
will most radically impact the world over the next decade
2010-to-2020″, based on five months of voting in over 200 countries and
a panel of 32 judges, in recognition of his innovation of 4G wireless.


30 Steps

Ray Kurzweil outlining Singularity University at TED.

I love the opening explanation:

“If you take 30 linear steps, you get to 30. If you take 30 exponential steps, you get to a billion.”
 

Speculist Survey: What Technology Wants

As I noted on Friday, Kevin Kelly’s new book is called What Technology Wants, and it explores the question of how and whether technology is evolving, and to what end.

My thoughts on the question of what technology wants kicked off some interesting discussion, which in turn called for a response from me. And it got me thinking that what I’d really like to know is what you think about it.

So please, complete the survey and share any additional thoughts in the blog comments.

A Pronounced Tendency

Part of Image:Planetary society.jpg Original c...

Image via Wikipedia

I have two words for you, Will Brown: Oh, piffle.

I hate to resort to that kind of language, but really.

So I’m to understand that because a bunch of 19th- and 20th-century lunkheads capitalized the word “History” so as to justify implementing their egregious theories about centralizing state power, we are no longer permitted to observe trends over time.

Well, sue me. And I suggest that if you want to hit the really deep pockets you should name Ray Kurzweil and a number of others as co-defendants in the suit. (Carl Sagan’s estate would make a particularly good target.) Anyway, I don’t capitalize either “technology” or “history*,” and I don’t believe that technology possesses (or provides) any “magical abilities.” I hate pointing all this out, because clearly you want to argue with someone who holds these kinds of positions, and I generally try to do what I can to help out  a friend in need. But I’m not going to try to fake it. That just wouldn’t be fair.

I ‘ve got to hand it to you on the following:

Now, I recognise the implied intent of the modifying quotation marks
Phil employs; I understand he is making an allegorical statement and
not a literal one. While I am quite willing to accept without comment
using such as a rhetorical device, to advance a narrative say, such
thinking simply isn’t explanatory though which is Phil’s stated purpose
for the passage quoted above.

Okay, first, am I correct in thinking that there’s some words or punctuation or something missing here? Sorry, but that second sentence just doesn’t scan for me (after the word “such.”)  Here’s my reading of the paragraph:

Let me briefly acknowledge that Phil is speaking metaphorically and now move on to the rest of this piece in which I will argue with him as though he were speaking more or less literally.

 Nice!

Anyway, the key to the whole piece is the statement that technology wants what we want. In outlining its desires I am giving voice to what I take to be humanity’s desires as expressed by what I will call a pronounced tendency (not History, not even a trend) on our part to use it to try to better our circumstances. I think people want to make their own lives better (along with the lives of others, sometimes) and that technology is one of the most effective ways we have of doing so.

Now you can disagree with my naively positive assessment of humanity if you wish, but don’t come back assuming that I think everything always works out (I do not) or that I think that people are magical (they aren’t.) However I do believe they have this very interesting, very pronounced tendency and that — for the most part — technology is put to work in support of that tendency.

Otherwise, I agree that technology is just stuff, that it’s our collection of tools, and that it is (in some ways) ephemeral. My house is wired with ethernet cables and ports to support a LAN. This was thought a fairly high-tech thing to do when it was built a few years ago. I never use them; I have wi-fi. On the other hand, my house also has walls, windows, doors, and a roof. Some technological developments persist, others fall quickly by the wayside.

I’ll close with this thought. Your efforts at trying to put technology in its place as not being all that important might be more persuasive if you weren’t making said arguments via blog posts and Facebook links.

*Although I must confess that I do, sometimes, capitalize “singularity,” mainly because I see it as a specific event or period, something like the Norman Conquest or the Renaissance. Clearly, if I capitalized “singularity” all the time there would be no denying that I am some very dangerous species of crypto-techno-fascist. But my somewhat randomized approach is probably indicative of a penchant for anarchy. Who would have guessed?

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