Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

What Does Technology Want?

The question, as raised in a new book by Kevin Kelly, is apparently not just hypothetical.

In What Technology Wants, tech guru Kevin Kelly sees the “technium” as a seamless extension of complex biology, evolving by the same rules…

According to Kelly, technology is an emerging state of cosmic reality. We cannot reject it, so we need to understand it.

As in his earlier book Out of Control, Kelly sees the evolution of technology as a seamless extension of complex biology. Now his “technosphere” becomes the “technium”. Not only do the biosphere and technium overlap in Kelly’s conception, biology and technology evolve according to the same rules.

The review goes on to say Kelly views both biological and technological evolution as having a teleological component, meaning they are driven towards some higher, presumably spiritual, destination. So Kelly is presumably of the mind that what technology “wants” is what’s good for our souls. I won’t argue with this position based on a distillation of a book review — and I do plan to read the book — but I don’t mind taking my own stab at answering the question the title raises.

And, in fact, my answer would be pretty close to Kelly’s (as described.) I think technology “wants” to improve our circumstances. Technology wants to empower individuals and transform society. Technology wants to decrease human suffering and increase human happiness.

In other words, technology wants exactly what we want. And that shouldn’t be all that surprising, because our technology is us. We evolved to top out at a certain running speed, but that wasn’t good enough for us so we decided to build bicycles, trains, cars, and airplanes. We wanted to go faster. What did the technology want? The same thing.

We found that recording and having access to information was extremely helpful in many facets of our lives, and that often we needed more than we could relaibly maintain in our brains or within the brains of all the members of a community. So we invented writing, and then printing, and then all manner of media, and then the Internet. We wanted better information access. That’s what those technologies wanted to provide for us.

Of course, there are many examples where we want to figure out ways to wipe out vast numbers of our fellow humans as efficienty as possible, or where we want to achieve ABC because of the benefits involved, without giving much thought to the XYZ downside for our neighbors or the environment. And in those instances, technology shares (and amplifies) our malevolence or indifference.

But on the whole, technology wants to make things better. The vast majority of technological developments occur because someone is trying to improve something. (Even when in our shortsightedness technology leads to unintended consequential downsides, those downsides become a siuation that someone wants to improve, and new improvements ensue.) Technology is a physical manifestation of our desire for the world to be a better place. It amplifies that desire and makes improvements persist — even after the inventor is gone, the invention remains.

Technology wants people to be happy, and to be better than they are. Technology wants the world to be a better place.

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FastForward Radio — It's Astounding!

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Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon discuss all things astounding…
 
Weird Physics Facts

Astounding Science Facts

Other Astounding Facts

 
Plus…each host provides an answer to the following question:

What will be the single most significant technological development in the coming 20 years, and why?

Listen to internet radio with The Speculist on Blog Talk Radio

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Still More on the 100 Year Starship

Buzz Aldrin bootprint. It was part of an exper...

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Brian Wang provides some more insight:

The 100-Year Starship study is trying to create a vision that makes business sense yet will motivate generations to development and create manned interstellar spaceflight. Develop a business case and an enduring organization.

The 100-Year Starship study will examine the business model needed to develop and mature a technology portfolio enabling long-distance manned spaceflight a century from now. This goal will require sustained investments of intellectual and financial capital from a variety of sources. The yearlong study aims to develop a construct that will incentivize and facilitate private co-investment to ensure continuity of the lengthy technological time horizon needed.

This is starting to sound interesting. On the one hand, I love the idea of long-term, multi-generational projects. We need a lot more of that sort of thing.

On the other hand, how can we prepare for a technological accomplishment 100 years from now? Imagine the world of 1910 planning a trip to the moon, which of course occured only 59 years later. How could people living in a world where steam-powered locomotives and ships were the height of technology, a world that had only known airplanes for seven years, possibly come up with a working model for getting to the moon? 

Actually, Jules Verne outlined a plan for getting to the moon in 1865, which we can round off to an even century before Apollo 11, nearly 40 years before the Wright brothers made their first flight. Sure, Verne got some pretty important stuff wrong, but it’s intriguing how much he got right. So maybe trying to outline a spacefaring project 100 years hence isn’t a bad idea – as long as we keep it pretty broad and don’t get married to details like method of propulsion. (Verne proposed a cannon firing a space capsule in the form of a huge artillery shell.)

But there’s a wrinkle: technological acceleration. The year 2110 may be a much more remote future from here than 2010 was from 1910. Even if the “big S” singularity doesn’t occur between now and then — in which case all bets are off – a few developments in nanotechnology and energy production could render our most lucid scenarios as quaint as Verne’s cannon.     

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Speculist Survey: The Next Twenty

UPDATE: Christian has posted the answers he received from Aaron Saenz, David Pearce, Michael Anissimov, some other blogger, and George Dvorsky over at I Look Forward To. Interesting mix of viewpoints!

From our friend Christian Henrik Nesheim comes this question:

If you had to guess, what will be the single most significant technological development in the coming 20 years, and why?

timelines.jpgThis is a fun one. We’ll be touching on this question on both this week’s and next week’s podcasts. I have submitted my answer to Christian.

Meanwhile, what do you think? The survey asks for the general category from which you believe the biggest breakthrough will come over the next two decades. Use the blog comments to get more specific.

Results here.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Thanks for the link, Glenn and welcome Instapundit readers. If you enjoy surveys, you might like the following:

Future Habitats
Why Go to the Stars?
Alien Motivations

Friday Videos — The Time Travel Video Deconstructed

So there’s been a lot of talk about a time traveler being spotted in a 1928 Charlie Chaplin film. Let’s have a look:

This is what happens when you look at the past through the eyes of the
present. She sure looks like she’s talking on a cell phone, but there’s
a problem.

Time traveler goes back to 1928, brings mobile phone with her. 

Check.

Decides she wants to call someone.

Check.

Tries to place a call.

PROBLEM
– the very fist analog “car-phone” networks didn’t come along until
the 1930′s. She can’t make a call! Satellite phone, you say? Nope. That
won’t work until even later!

So she has a magic time-travel phone that she uses to call her
friends back in the future? Okay, fine. But then again, shouldn’t that be
pretty much invisible thanks to miniaturization?

She has access to time
travel and magic phones but doesn’t have a bluetooth earpiece?

Also, the biggest problem here is that she’s fat. We’re talking
about a future that has solved time travel but not obesity? I don’t buy
it.

Ah, but she’s in disguise, you say.

So what we have
here is a visitor from the far future who is trying to blend in with
the locals, but who allows herself to be caught on film using magic
future technology that nobody around her can possibly understand. She’s in disguise (and possibly even in drag if we’re to believe the guy in the Youtube video) but she goes about flagrantly using future technology.

In front of a camera.

Okay, when you put it that way it sounds perfectly plausible.

FastForward Radio — Trick or Treat

Jack-o'-lantern

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At a special time, Phil  and Stephen  ring in Halloween with a grab-bag show so chock-full of futuristic goodness it’s scary.

Tricks and treats include:

  • 100 Year Starship
  • Robot Races
  • Writing in the Margins
  • What’s so good about being good?
  • Where do good ideas come from?

PLUS an update on the show’s new format and our special series starting in January 2011.

Listen to internet radio with The Speculist on Blog Talk Radio



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FastForward Radio — Humanity Plus!

NOTE: Looks like there is some delay in getting the audio for the current show up on the BTR site, so the player is defaulting the last week’s show. We have notified BTR; hope to have the correct show up soon.
 
UPDATE: Looks like the problem is fixed.
 
Phil and Stephen welcome futurist Thomas McCabe to FastForward Radio to talk about what’s new with Humanity+ and to get a sneak preview of the upcoming Humanity+ Conference at Caltech, December 4-5. Topics to be covered at the conference include:

  • Re-Imagining Humans: Mind, Media and Methods
  • Radically Increasing the Human Healthspan
  • Redefining Intelligence: Artificial
  • Intelligence, Intelligence Enhancement and
  • Substrate-Independent Minds
  • Business and Economy in the Era of Radical Technomorphosis

Fore more information on Humanity+, info@humanityplus.org.

Plus:
an all-new edition of “Tales of the Paranormal.”

FFRNewLogo9J.jpg

Listen to internet radio with The Speculist on Blog Talk Radio

About Our Guest

mccabe.jpgThomas McCabe is a mathematics student at Yale University and software engineer at Stik.com. He is the IT and website manager for the Singularity Summit and also a Research Consultant for KurzweilAI.net. He was recently elected to the board of directors of Humanity+ where he also serves as Program Coordinator.

100 Year Starship

This is the most up-to-date DARPA logo.

Image via Wikipedia

It’s tantalizing in its lack of specificity:

NASA Ames Director Simon “Pete” Worden revealed Saturday that NASA Ames has “just started a project with DARPA called the Hundred Year Starship,” with $1 million funding from DARPA and $100K from NASA.

“You heard it here,” said Worden at “Long Conversation,” a Long Now Foundation event in San Francisco. “We also hope to inveigle some billionaires to form a Hundred Year Starship fund,” Dr. Worden added. (No further details on this are available from NASA at this time.)[Emphasis added.]

So what might be the goal of a project with such an auspicious name? We can only imagine that it’s to produce a starship over the course of a century.

A century is both a useful and a misleading unit of time to use for such a project.

It’s useful because, as we have discussed on recent editions of the podcast, the technology challenges that would have to be overcome to produce a true star drive are immense. Brian Wang talks about us getting to interstellar capability by working our way up the Kardashev Scale. Plus, it’s good to think in terms of centuries because — even with starships that can achieve a substantial percentage of light speed — trips to anything but the closest of stars will take hundreds of years to complete. 

On the other hand, a century is a long time from now, and an awful lot can change between today and 2110. Progress in parallel disciplines might have a lot to say about how and whether we ever undertake star travel. Depending on what happens, a century might become an infinitely long period of time.

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Invasion?

Friday night I heard a guy on George Noory talking about how he had predicted that UFOs would be seen in the skies over the world’s major cities on October 13 and that the “events in Manhattan” had proved him right.

Meh, it wouldn’t be much of an installment of Coast to Coast without that kind of statement. The show is all about confirmation bias and wishful thinking and delusions, after all. And I said out loud, as I pulled the car into the driveway and switched off the radio, “Oh, yeah, that incident in New York that everyone is talking about and that has made such huge headlines. Right.”

So then yesterday I get the following email from my sister:

What the hell was over NY last Wednesday?  I didn’t even know this had happened.  The site below has an 8 minute raw footage video shot by CBS.  It looks and sounds legitimate to me.  Fox reported that this UFO sighting was predicted by a former air defense officer in a book that he wrote.  He predicted that a fleet of UFOs would be seen over the world’s main cities on 10/13/10.  I gotta research that one.

Okay, weird, so apparently the guy I heard on George Noory — and please don’t get the idea that I tune into this show every night; I was just hitting radio buttons on the way home from the movie — is the same one referenced in my sister’s email.

Here’s the video:


I don’t know what to make of that. They look like balloons to me, but they seem to be moving oddly for balloons. Some of the odd movement is apparently an artifact of camera panning and zooming, but not all of it. So, odd, interesting, and, to me, thoroughly unconvincing.

I wrote back to my sister:

Clearly, if some guy said there would be lights in the sky and then there were lights in the sky, earth is being visited by extraterrestrial space craft. There is no other conceivable explanation.

(Don’t worry; I’m her older brother. She’s used to the snotty tone.)

Well, then my brother chimes in with the following:

Very Weird!  Make sure dad see’s this.

 
We were in Parker at [my nephew's] football game and watched 4 of these things for about an hour.  Looked just like that but not grouped that tightl

Turns out my Dad saw something similar just a couple of weeks ago. Then my brother sent me a link to this video:

At this point, I’m starting to feel like a character in the opening scenes of a science fiction movie. In the following scenes, the aliens would show themselves unambiguously either by attacking or by landing in front of the White House and asking us to joint the Galactic Union or whatever.

Fortunately (or unfortunately) it seems we never seem to get to those subsequent scenes.

So meanwhile…let’s do another survey!