Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

The World Transformed 2, Part 9: the Future Transformed

A convergence of emerging technologies and emerging possibilities lies at the heart of this, the greatest period of transformation in human history. Our world is changing in ways that are difficult to predict; sometimes even difficult to imagine.

Accelerating technological change may soon alter our world beyond recognition…and maybe that’s a good thing.

 

Join us:

Wednesday, August 24, 2011
7 PM PDT / 10 PM EDT

Our Panelists

Ray Kurzweil
Anders Sandberg
Philippe van Nedervelde

Just as Likely

So the aliens might wipe us out because of our carbon emissions?

I don’t think these NASA scientists have considered how risky and untenable our position truly is. Carbon emissions are just one good reason aliens might wipe us out. Consider a few others:

  1. Our inadequate city planning
  2. Our atrocious table manners
  3. Our lack of antennae, gills, forehead ridges, or other arbitrary alien facial features that their sci-fi shows insist we ought to have
  4. Our blasphemous refusal to bow down Zobador, Crustacean Lord of the Universe
  5. American Idol
  6. Our too-frequent tendency to end sentences with “you know?”
  7. Our color pollution of the planet (e.g., they might really hate purple)

I’m sure there are lots of other equally likely reasons. Can you name some?

Future Job Hunt

I’ve spent the past few months making my own humble contribution to adding an analytical layer to a job search site which we’ve also been working on making more interesting and social networkish.

These initiatives have given me some time to think about how rapidly the process that we call “job hunting” is changing, both from the candidate’s and from the hiring manager’s perspective. Based on what I’ve learned working on these projects, and generally from posting to this blog every day, I’m prepared to make a few predictions about what job hunting will be like in the near future.

1. It will keep getting sillier, and probably won’t get any more fair.

Job candidates can continue to expect to be asked questions like, “How many bricks are there in Shanghai?” and “If you were the size of a pencil, how would you escape from a blender?” Once organizations decide that they’re being creative and cutting edge by asking them, it’s hard to get them off the stupid job interview questions. No matter how nice we ask.

Meanwhile, there seems to be no slowing down in the practice of discriminating against the unemployed,or even the arguably-less-employed-than-they-should-be.

Expect your future job hunt to involve a lot of hoop-jumping and the very real possibility of being eliminated for reasons that have nothing to do with how qualified you are.

2. The resume is dead (long live the resume.)

I don’t have a ‘resume” per se any more. I have a LinkedIn profile, a Zapoint Profile, a Jobster profile, a Naymz profile, a Facebook profile, and some really out-of-date online resumes on Monster, CareerBuilder, and at least a couple others.

My LinkedIn profile looks like a resume but it’s more sophisticated and adaptable than a resume. I was able to import it into both Zapoint and Jobster to create my profiles there, both of which allow me to do various kinds of analysis of my skills and experience.

Time was we created a resume almost entirely for the consumption of others. But increasingly, we are seeing the data that comprises the resume as the real asset — rather than one superficial organization of it that we print out and share with potential employers. That data belongs to us, and it is as much for our use as it is for the use of others.

3. Job Hunt = Bucking for Promotion?

Speaking of it being our data, we can increasingly expect HR systems within organizations to be driven by the same kinds of profiles that are currently replacing resumes. Talent Management is looking to become the latest in a long series of processes to be automated and handed off to the consumer (or in this case, the employee.) Talent management has always been a massive exercise in cat-herding anyhow. Why not let the cats herd themselves?

We’ll find that career management inside the organization is going to look more and more like career management outside the organization. Trying to get a promotion (or even stay in the position you’re in) is going to require using many of the same tools and skills currently required for the job hunt.

4. It will become more “social.”

I put scare quotes on the word social because job-hunting is already one of the most inherently social activities we engage in. It’s been known for a long time that those who create and maintain strong social networks (as distinct from “social networks” ) have a tremendous advantage in looking for a job over those who aren’t successful at creating and maintaining such networks.

The difference today and into the future is that the social aspects of the job search will increasingly rely on social technologies. These technologies will provide new ways for friends to refer and otherwise connect each other with opportunities. Referrals and ranking, even completely subjective “thumbs-up” type ranking, will likely become an important part of candidate selection criteria.

Some will see that last sentence as a reaffirmation of point 1, above. And if we’re not careful, that’s exactly what it will be.

5. Candidates will get some new advantages.

It’s not all downside for job hunters. The profile-driven approach described above will make it possible for candidates to get a much clearer idea of how close a match they are for given positions — using objective criteria. The job hunt will not become a completely mathematical proposition, but it is going to tend in that direction.

Likewise, large collections of profiles raise the possibility of creating an aggregate profile database. With everyone in a database of job-seekers using the same tagging “language” to describe their skills and experience, it will be easy fora job-seeker to run a quick calculation to determine that he or she is the 5th (or 5000th) most qualified candidate applying for a given position. That should save everyone a lot of time.

Of course, there will be many other changes in the job search process over and above the ones I’ve listed here. What major changes do you expect to see?

Cross-posted from Transparency Revolution.

The World Transformed 2, Part 8: Our Fears Transformed

It is both exciting and daunting to live in an age in possessed of so much possibility as demonstrated by the wide array of topics discussed in this series. It’s exciting because our awareness of possibility is so much greater than it was even a generation or two ago. And it is daunting for exactly the same reason. We can envision plausible triumphs for humanity that really do transcend our wildest dreams, or at least our most glorious fantasies as articulated a few decades ago. Likewise, we can envision bleak and dangerous scenarios, including that worst of all possible outcomes — the sudden and utter disappearance of our civilization, or of our species, or of life itself. Such a fate now presents itself as the end result of not just one possible calamity, but of many.

A panel of futurists discuss how our worst fears need not hold us back, and can in fact help ensure our future.

 

Join us:

Wednesday, August 17, 2011
7 PM PDT / 10 PM EDT

Our Panelists:

Brian Wang
Alvis Brigis
Michael Anissimov

How to Save Four Billion Lives

Let’s discuss some ideas that really make a difference.

Over at The World Transformed site, Brian Wang explains why accelerating technological development should be happening faster. Lives are at stake. A lot of lives:

Currently we have 55 million people dying every year and we are still stuck on earth. If we did things right in 20-30 years we could be flying the solar system as easily as we fly around the world today and have lifespans and health that are radically better. The transformed world would be better and more of us around now would live to see it if it happens sooner. If it happens in 2081 instead of 2031 then 3-5 billion more would have died before it happened.

Virtually everyone reading this is one of those four billion who won’t be here in 2081. Isn’t Brian’s alternative worth pursuing?

The World Transformed 2, Part 7: Wealth Transformed

Throughout human history, material scarcity has been a constant driver of innovation and economic growth. Today the world knows material abundance far beyond what could have been imagined a few centuries ago, even while shortages, poverty and want remain a reality for many.

But that may not always be the case. New technologies suggest that we may be near a turning point in our long struggle with scarcity. In the near future, technology may make it possible for any human being, anywhere, to have access to any materials good he or she might want or need.

At the same time, automation is taking over an increasingly large set of tasks that once belonged to human workers. Historically, automation boosts productivity and reduces the need for human workers. Over the past four decades, our economy has made a massive shift to a highly automated, digitized substrate. As recently as a decade and a half or so ago, economists were still scratching their heads over when the big productivity gains would emerge from this shift. Then about five or six years ago, those productivity numbers started showing up, apparently at the expense of the total number of human beings needed to drive our economy.

Will our future economy be post-employment, post-scarcity, both, or something else? A panel of futurists discuss the possibilities.


Join us:

Wednesday, August 10, 2011
7 PM PDT / 10 PM EDT

Our Panelists:

Paul Fernhout

Joseph Jackson

Martin Ford

"Daddy, What's an A-Hole?"

This is the moment you realize that your efforts at self-censorship around your two-year-old have been inadequate.

The World Transformed 2, Part 6: Reality Transformed

There are some who seriously ask whether the universe we live in is the real universe or merely a simulation of some kind — something like the virtual world depicted in the Matrix. series of films. There are others who suggest that, even if we aren’t living in a simulation now, it might just be a matter of time until we are.

A panel of futurists discuss the nearly infinite possibilities to be found in worlds’ that we create ourselves.


 

Join us:

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

7 PM PDT / 10 PM EDT

Our Panelists:

Natasha Vita-More

Jim Elvidge

Bruce Katz

The World Transformed 2, Part 5: Intelligence Transformed

A few years back, a computer won a chess match against the world’s most highly rated player.

More recently, a computer beat a pair of highly skilled human competitors on the game show Jeopardy! IBM, the company responsible for building both of these remarkable machines, announced that Watson, the computer that won on Jeopardy!, is (in effect) going to medical school. Machine intelligence is evolving rapidly.

The questions this raises are both simple and powerful:

How long until machine intelligence reaches the level of human intelligence?

How long, after that, before human / machine intelligence reaches a level far beyond anything seen or imagined before?

A panel of futurists and AI experts join us to discuss the coming intelligence explosion.

Join Us:

July 27, 2011

7 PM PDT / 10 PM EDT

Our Panelists:

Ben Goertzel

James Hughes

Carl Shulman

Greg “SurfDaddy” Campbell