John Tierney chats with Vernor Vinge on different possible paths to the Singularity. Vinge asserts that intelligence amplification could be the way that human beings stay relevant when artificial intelligence begins to emerge.
Personally, I’m ready for IA as soon as it becomes available.
I think Andy Samberg is in obvious need of intensive therapy if not medication. But, hey, until he gets help, we can continue to enjoy his videos.
Memes! Part 2
Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon talked about memes:
What memes should die?
What memes should be promoted?
What are the memes that somebody needs to get going?
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Being human, we are always trying to find a way to improve our condition. We’re never satisfied with the status quo.
One very important metric for improvement is life span.
I found the above graph in a paper by Marvin Minsky. It shows that only about 20% of people lived to see age 45 in ancient Rome. By 1900, 20% of people lived to just above age 70. By 1960 20% made it to age 85.
Check out that last “all diseases cured” curve. If we cure all diseases (all diseases, that is, except aging itself) 20% will make it to 95. So if you’re part of that lucky 1 in 5, curing all disease would give you only 10 years more than you would have had in 1960. And the maximum life span hasn’t increased at all.
What allowed dinosaurs to be the dominant form of life on earth for all those millions of years? Would you believe they just got lucky?
The closest competitors to the dinosaurs during the Triassic period (about 251 to 199 million years ago) were the crurotarsans, the ancestors of today’s crocodiles.
Both dinosaurs and crurotarsans evolved and filled some of the same ecological niches after a massive extinction event at the end of the Permian period some 250 million years ago. Both groups also survived a later extinction event about 228 million years ago.
The researchers found no difference in the rates of evolution of the two groups. If dinosaurs were out-competing the crurotarsans, they should have been evolving faster.
Crurotarsans also had a much higher disparity – in other words, they were exploring a wider range of body types, diets and lifestyles. Again, this should have given them a leg up on the dinosaurs.
So why did the dinosaurs survive that second mass extinction event, while the crurotarsans (except for a few lineages of crocodiles) disappeared?
“We don’t know the answer to that,” Brusatte said, “but we suspect that it was nothing more than luck, plain and simple.”
Personally, I find the “luck” explanation less than satisfying. There must have been a real difference between the two groups that allowed one to survive the extinction event. You can say that the dinosaurs were “lucky” to have that trait — or set of traits — or you can describe those traits as an evolutionary advantage against at least that particular kind of extinction event.
I guess unless one argues that the dinosaurs deliberately developed a resistance to that kind of event — and I’m certainly not saying that — the two arguments mean the same thing. Looks like some pretty important things really do come down to luck.
What allowed dinosaurs to be the dominant form of life on earth for all those millions of years? Would you believe they just got lucky?
The closest competitors to the dinosaurs during the Triassic period (about 251 to 199 million years ago) were the crurotarsans, the ancestors of today’s crocodiles.
Both dinosaurs and crurotarsans evolved and filled some of the same ecological niches after a massive extinction event at the end of the Permian period some 250 million years ago. Both groups also survived a later extinction event about 228 million years ago.
The researchers found no difference in the rates of evolution of the two groups. If dinosaurs were out-competing the crurotarsans, they should have been evolving faster.
Crurotarsans also had a much higher disparity – in other words, they were exploring a wider range of body types, diets and lifestyles. Again, this should have given them a leg up on the dinosaurs.
So why did the dinosaurs survive that second mass extinction event, while the crurotarsans (except for a few lineages of crocodiles) disappeared?
“We don’t know the answer to that,” Brusatte said, “but we suspect that it was nothing more than luck, plain and simple.”
Personally, I find the “luck” explanation less than satisfying. There must have been a real difference between the two groups that allowed one to survive the extinction event. You can say that the dinosaurs were “lucky” to have that trait — or set of traits — or you can describe those traits as an evolutionary advantage against at least that particular kind of extinction event.
I guess unless one argues that the dinosaurs deliberately developed a resistance to that kind of event — and I’m certainly not saying that — the two arguments mean the same thing. Looks like some pretty important things really do come down to luck.
Speculist contributor Kathy Hanson (who also blogs at Beyond Words) has been involved in the long, slow process of selling out to the mainstream media over the past few years. Stephen and I totally approve of this, of course, as we are constantly trying to pimp out FastForward Radio to some big media outlet — so far with less success than Kathy has had.
Anyhow, her she is with some thoughts on the Large Hadron Collider.
A shot was heard around the world on Wednesday. But no bullets or guns were used. The projectile was a beam of photons fired through the Large Hadron Collider’s 17-mile ring of tunnel. And the only noise involved was the cheering of elated scientists, including two graduate students from Iowa State University, celebrating how well the complicated systems worked for the first firing of the most powerful particle accelerator ever built.
Kathy reports that her current gig has her focusing a lot on hard science stories, so we’re looking forward to more of these.
After you’ve read Kathy’s story on the Large Hadron Collider, come back and watch this video explanation:
Memes!
Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon discussed memes:
How do memes shape the future?
Stream our latest shows:
Or:
Or download MP3′s for all the archived shows at:
Click “Continue Reading” for the show notes:
No, not that game.
Much more significantly, by outlining an energy plan as comprehensive the one that Barack Obama outlined last week, John McCain is now in the running for one of these:
As we announced on the most recent edition of FastForward Radio, we will be awarding the presidential candidate who outlines the most speculicious program — that is, the plan with the most Speculist appeal — with a FastForward Radio coffee mug. Remaining zealously apolitical, we will not be endorsing any candidates for President, but we are pleased to provide a significant motivation to both candidates to get focused on positive future scenarios, especially those driven by emerging technologies and emerging possibilities.
While McCain did not put a timeline on his plan to get us off what I’m going to call hostile foreign oil (not necessarily all foreign oil) he did specifically mention one of our favorite approaches to energy independence: flex fuels. He also had some intriguing things to say about retraining the workforce in a global economy. We’ll take a look at McCain’s speech on Sunday’s podcast and decide whether he has taken the lead in the race for the mug or whether Obama still has the edge.
And a reminder to both Senator Obama and Senator McCain — if either happen to be reading this — any use by either of you of the phrase “space elevator” ought to just about clinch this thing. So don’t be shy.
