Monthly Archives: November 2004

A New Path to the Moon

SMART 1

Congratulations to the European Space Agency! Its SMART-1 spacecraft has arrived in orbit around the Moon.

Almost more impressive than reaching its destination was the slow and steady way the SMART-1 craft puttered its way there — flying 13 months in ever expanding circles around the earth using a cutting-edge ion propulsion system.

The spacecraft used only 130 pounds of the 181 pounds of xenon fuel it had aboard, according to European Space Agency spokesman Franco Bonacina in Paris. That translates to more than 5 million miles per gallon.

This is only the second time that Ion propulsion has been used as the primary drive for a probe. NASA’s 1998 Deep Space 1 probe was the first.

The ESA hopes to find water in the dark craters at the Moon’s south pole.

The MSM Gets it Wrong Again

Okay, so here’s the headline:

Peru
Seizes Cocaine Haul Hidden in Giant Squid
.

No big deal, just your average everyday news story. It’s not like its alien
fish
in Chicago, hobbit
remains
discovered in Indonesia, or monkeys
using their brains to control computers
. It’s just some cocaine hidden in
a giant squid.

But if you follow the link to the AP/Yahoo slideshow, what do you get? Three
pictures of cops with bricks of cocaine. Um, hello? I had a pretty good
idea of what cops (even Peruvian cops) look like anyway. And we’ve all seen
big bricks of drugs like that on TV. It’s like following one of the links above
and getting a picture of the computer, not the monkey. Or maybe getting a nice
picture of the Sears Tower rather than, say, a snakehead.

So I present here for the edification of my readers a resonable fascimile of
a Pervuian cop removing cocaine from a giant squid.

Jump Start a Heart

heartstart1.jpeg

Heart disease kills many people who had no idea that they were sick. More than 300,000 people die every year in the United States from sudden cardiac arrest. Most of these people had no idea they had heart disease.

For the best chance of survival from SCA caused by VF, a defibrillator should be used within 5 minutes. Yet, less than 1 in 20 people survive largely because a defibrillator does not arrive in time.

That’s the bad news, the good news is that more people will be saved as defibrillators become common.

heart start

This model, the Philips HeartStart, requires no training to operate. The unit itself will prompt you to remove the victim’s shirt, place an electrode on the right upper chest, another electrode on the lower left rib cage, and then the unit will monitor the heart and decide if a shock is necessary.

If the unit determines that CPR is needed, it will walk the user through those steps.

So that you won’t have a dead battery at the worst time, it performs a daily self-test. It doesn’t call 911 for you [note to Philips: it should], but this product is a remarkable advancement in home safety equipment.

The price of $1,500 is still prohibitive for many. But like other technology, prices are coming down while the products improve.

This gadget is the perfect synthesis of two of our mottos at The Speculist: Things are getting “better all the time,” and “live to see it.”

Via Instapundit.

What Are the Chances?

Via Kurzweil
AI
, Space.com
is running a series of articles on a SETI
proposal to perform the famous
double-slit experiment
over interstellar distances. The experiment will
show that quantum effects are not just microscopic or localized phenomena. The
first article in the series provides a good summary of how truly strange the
quantum picture of the world is:

This, the simplest of quantum weirdness experiments, has been the basis of
many of the unintuitive interpretations of quantum physics. We can see, perhaps,
how physicists might conclude, for example, that a particle of light is not
a particle until it is measured at the screen. It turns out that the particle
of light is rather a wave before it is measured. But it is not a wave in the
ocean-wave sense. It is not a wave of matter but rather, it turns out that
it is apparently a wave of probability. That is, the elementary particles
making up the trees, people, and planets — what we see around us — are apparently
just distributions of likelihood until they are measured (that is, measured
or observed). So much for the Victorian view of solid matter!

The shock of matter being largely empty space may have been extreme enough
— if an atom were the size of a huge cathedral, then the electrons would
be dust particles floating around at all distances inside the building, while
the nucleus, or center of the atom, would be smaller than a sugar cube. But
with quantum physics, even this tenuous result would be superseded by the
atom itself not really being anything that exists until it is measured. One
might rightly ask, then, what does it mean to measure something? And this
brings us to the Uncertainly Principle first discovered by Werner Heisenberg.
Dr. Heisenberg wrote, “Some physicist would prefer to come back to the
idea of an objective real world whose smallest parts exist objectively in
the same sense as stones or trees exist independently of whether we observe
them. This however is impossible."

Stephen
and I were chatting about probability the other night. The specific topic was
video poker, which I sometimes play virtually while doing other things (e.g.,
sitting on conference calls.) When I say I play virtually, I mean that
there is no real money involved. I play with fictional, electronic dollars,
but the games are (presumably) the same as they would be if real dollars were
at stake. That presumption is borne out by the fact that I generally loose.
Stephen opined that he would never play a game where the odds are stacked against
him, which is the case with any typical Las Vegas casino game. The one exception
might be Black Jack dealt from a one-deck shoe; the conventional wisdom is that
a sufficiently skilled card-counter can work the odds to his advantage in that
setting.

I wonder whether the appeal of games of chance isn’t built into us at some
fundamental level? We ourselves are clusters of probabilites, our lives are
an ongoing series of likelihoods (and unlikelihoods) that we have to negotiate.
Celebrating out fourth wedding anniversary last night, my wife and I talked
about how vanishingly unlikely it was that she and I would ever meet
— much less begin dating, fall in love, and get married. From the vantage
point of the past, my present life is very
unlikely indeed
.

So the choice we have to face is whether we are going to let the probabilities
grind us along, as I do when playing video poker, or whether we’re going to
try to "rig" the game in our favor, as Stephen insists we must do
in order to make the game worthwhile. I think most of us are with Stephen. I
know I am. Here are some of my original thoughts on this subject. I think the
subject is worthy of more attention.

Here are some of my earlier thoughts on how we might rig the game.

What’s a Speculist?
Practical Time Travel
Divvying up the Future
Types of Future
i Space
Reality’s Flashlight
And Now the Extremely
Good News

Give Yourself a Present
Roots of the Modern
World

Wasn't that a Mel Gibson/Tina Turner Movie?

Everybody go check out PunditDrome,
a very cool new approach to blog aggregation. And, yes, it would have been cool
even if creator Scott Ferguson hadn’t decided to include The Speculist in his
blog hit parade. But seeing as he did include us…well, let’s just call
it

Cool + Good Taste

A formula for success if ever we saw one. PunditDrome is still in an early
stage of development. Scott has dubbed the current version Beta 1. In a recent
chat, I asked him what drove him to create such a handy blug-surfing tool. His
answer surprised me only a little:

Hmmm … I created the site to help keep myself from getting fired. I can
cruise the blogs without doing too many mouse clicks.

A worthy aim, indeed. PunditDrome makes good use of RSS feeds to provide a
sort of dashboard view into the blogosphere, giving an at-a-glance summary of
the latest entries on 51 diverse blogs. One of the neat things about this view
is that it retains some elements of the look and feel of each blog. Scott comments
on his unique view of the blogosphere:

I think it’s really interesting to see how an issue sweeps across the blogs,
it’s like watching clouds roll across the sky.

Nice image, that. So if you’d like to get a slightly different take on the
blogosphere than anything you’ve seen before, that name again is



Wasn’t that a Mel Gibson/Tina Turner Movie?

Everybody go check out PunditDrome,
a very cool new approach to blog aggregation. And, yes, it would have been cool
even if creator Scott Ferguson hadn’t decided to include The Speculist in his
blog hit parade. But seeing as he did include us…well, let’s just call
it

Cool + Good Taste

A formula for success if ever we saw one. PunditDrome is still in an early
stage of development. Scott has dubbed the current version Beta 1. In a recent
chat, I asked him what drove him to create such a handy blug-surfing tool. His
answer surprised me only a little:

Hmmm … I created the site to help keep myself from getting fired. I can
cruise the blogs without doing too many mouse clicks.

A worthy aim, indeed. PunditDrome makes good use of RSS feeds to provide a
sort of dashboard view into the blogosphere, giving an at-a-glance summary of
the latest entries on 51 diverse blogs. One of the neat things about this view
is that it retains some elements of the look and feel of each blog. Scott comments
on his unique view of the blogosphere:

I think it’s really interesting to see how an issue sweeps across the blogs,
it’s like watching clouds roll across the sky.

Nice image, that. So if you’d like to get a slightly different take on the
blogosphere than anything you’ve seen before, that name again is



Getting Warmer

Things
are heating
up on Mars
…literally. The planet is experiencing its own version of global
warming. The dry-ice polar caps are diminishing. Paul
Hsieh
speculates that this must be on account of our failure to sign Kyoto.
Wow, when somebody close to me told me that I could vote for Bush if I wanted
to, but I would have to accept the fact that everything that happens from now
on is my fault…well, I just didn’t grasp the cosmic implications.

On the other hand, I can’t help but wonder — if two planets so close to
each other are both experiencing a rise in surface temperature, isn’t it just
possible that it might have to do with that nearby star they both orbit?
I’m just asking is all. I mean, what if…

What if.

And I’m just asking. But what if global warming is real,
but it isn’t our
fault
and there is nothing we can do about it? (With current technology.)

Just asking.

UPDATE:
An Instalanche! Thanks,
Glenn. Nice Halliburton reference. For those of you new to The Speculist, welcome.
Please feel free to have a look around. We usually do more good
news
than bad, although we’re not averse to occasionally tackling the tough
questions, e.g., if
turkey guts are good, wouldn’t raw sewage be even better?

Stillness Part V, Chapter 52

We got back to the home about 9:30. Todd talked nonstop all the way there. He kept reminding me of the instructions and what to do if anything went wrong. You’ll be fine, he kept saying. Everything is going to be fine. It was pretty annoying, but I felt bad for him. He was so worried about me. Judy was, too, but she didn’t express it in words. She wouldn’t have been able to get one in edgewise, anyway. She just held my hand as we walked along (squeezing it a little beyond the comfort zone, to tell the truth.) But it was nice. She had never held my hand before.

Grace had my other hand and, as I mentioned, Todd was engaged in a meandering monologue about what to do and how well everything was going to work out. I had never before been the object of so much attention. It was a little bit of a relief to make it home.

That is, until we went inside.

Nano Energy and "the Peak"

Chris
Phoenix
has some sobering thoughts on the potential coming energy crisis…

If oil supply ever does fall below demand, we can expect prices to rise steeply.
At this point, it could take years for alternative technologies to come online,
no matter how much economic incentive there is–and meanwhile, since oil demand
is relatively "inelastic," the price of oil will be bid up until
it slows the global economy enough to reduce demand. That’s an ugly picture.

…as well as some thoughts on what we might do about it:

So how does this relate to molecular manufacturing? Well, to avoid a "Peak
experience," some new technology will have to come online and grow quite
rapidly. It will have to support rapid research and development (meaning,
rapid prototyping of industrial-scale projects). Then it will have to support
rapid trillion-dollar-scale building of infrastructure.

Read the whole
thing
, including the comments, which feature a lively discussion about alternative
oil sources. My favorite has got to be turkey
offal
, which really is being used today to produce a product not unlike
deisel fuel. There is some talk of using agricultural waste (cornstalks) or
growing crops (peanuts, sunflower seeds) specifically to convert to oil.

This got me to wondering…if turkey guts could be used to produce oil, why
not human waste? I’m sure we produce a lot more of the latter than the former,
and we already go to great lengths to collect and process it. This could include
not only what we flush down the toilet, but also much of what normally goes
out with the trash (or down the disposal): bones, rinds, leftovers, etc.

Not as exciting an a nanotechnology solution, I’ll grant you.

Speaking of exciting nanotechnology solutions, Chris also has the scoop on
a big breakthrough that
took place a decade ago
.

Nano Energy and “the Peak”

Chris
Phoenix
has some sobering thoughts on the potential coming energy crisis…

If oil supply ever does fall below demand, we can expect prices to rise steeply.
At this point, it could take years for alternative technologies to come online,
no matter how much economic incentive there is–and meanwhile, since oil demand
is relatively "inelastic," the price of oil will be bid up until
it slows the global economy enough to reduce demand. That’s an ugly picture.

…as well as some thoughts on what we might do about it:

So how does this relate to molecular manufacturing? Well, to avoid a "Peak
experience," some new technology will have to come online and grow quite
rapidly. It will have to support rapid research and development (meaning,
rapid prototyping of industrial-scale projects). Then it will have to support
rapid trillion-dollar-scale building of infrastructure.

Read the whole
thing
, including the comments, which feature a lively discussion about alternative
oil sources. My favorite has got to be turkey
offal
, which really is being used today to produce a product not unlike
deisel fuel. There is some talk of using agricultural waste (cornstalks) or
growing crops (peanuts, sunflower seeds) specifically to convert to oil.

This got me to wondering…if turkey guts could be used to produce oil, why
not human waste? I’m sure we produce a lot more of the latter than the former,
and we already go to great lengths to collect and process it. This could include
not only what we flush down the toilet, but also much of what normally goes
out with the trash (or down the disposal): bones, rinds, leftovers, etc.

Not as exciting an a nanotechnology solution, I’ll grant you.

Speaking of exciting nanotechnology solutions, Chris also has the scoop on
a big breakthrough that
took place a decade ago
.