Monthly Archives: December 2004

Early Warning System

Suraya and I visit Malaysia (her home country) every other year, usually at
Christmas time. Two years ago today we were on the island of Langkawi, which
is on the border of Thailand and Malaysia. Langkawi has sustained tremendous
damage in the wake of the tsunamis; the final death toll is not yet known. If
the earthquake had occured two years to the day earlier than it did, we would
almost certainly have been on the beach when the tsunami hit. Or, for that matter,
if our travel plans this year had been more in line with our normal preferences,
we would have been on the beach in Penang or Langkawi or Phuket yesterday when
the waves hit. (This year there were several family events taking
place right around Christmas that made it impossible for us to schedule any
beach time.)

One thing might have stopped us from doing so. We were having a late breakfast
and watching CNN yesterday morning when the news broke about the earthquake.
As I mentioned in my previous entry, I thought the fact that the earthquake
occured on the far side of Sumatra from where we were would prevent Malaysia
from having to worry about tidal waves. But I think that had I actually
been on the coast, I would have suggested staying well away from the water…just
in case. The CNN report mentioned the possibility of tsunamis, but there wasn’t
any warning to stay out of the water. There was no sense of urgency, at least
not in the initial report I saw. It wasn’t like, say, a tornado warning.

I can’t help but think that a number of tourists in Phuket and the Maldives
and other places watched that report before turning off the TV and heading to
the beach. (The tsunami danger that was mentioned was only for India and Bangladesh.)
If the report had been a very specific warning not to go near the water, I think
some lives would have been saved.

There’s been some discussion about how a tsunami warning system could be put
in place for the countries impacted by this catastrophe. Some official government-sanctioned
system would probably be a good idea, but failing that an educated media would
certainly help. If CNN and the BBC had immediately begun broadcasting a warning
that all coastal areas within the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea were in
danger of imminent tidal waves, hundreds or even thousands of lives may have
been saved. It’s true that there are millions of poor in Indonesia and Bangladesh
who live in remote areas and probably don’t have access even to BBC radio, much
less CNN. But local broadcasters would have quickly picked up the news, as would
law enforcement and other agencies. Word of mouth could have accomplished quite
a bit.

Memetics is still a new field; we have a lot to learn about how ideas are propagated
and how they spread. But can anybody doubt that an unambiguous warning of danger
would have spread much more quickly and would have reached many more people
(especially if repeated continuously throughout the two hours) than a note to
the effect that hmmm, there might be danger? It’s all about urgency. I’m not
trying to be critical of the media. As others have pointed out, this is such
a rare thing to have happened it’s no wonder it caught everyone off guard. Still,
in light of this catastrophe, a very positive step for media organizations to
take would be to recognize the role they can play in mitigating this kind of
disaster in the future.

We're Okay

When we saw the news this morning about the earthquake in Sumatra — just
across the Straits of Malacca from where we are — I commented that Malaysia
should be safe from the threat of tsunami because the earthquake was on the
far side of the island of Sumatra. Obviously, I was wrong.

As the death tolls continue to rise throughout the night, it’s clear that the
greatest devastation has occured in India and Sri Lanka, although it is chilling
to see the see images of destruction from Penang and Langkawi in Malaysia and
Phuket and Kerabi in Thailand, all of which we have visited. The southern end
of Peninsular Malaysia appears to have avoided the the destructive tsunamis.
In any case, Kuala Lumnpur is sufficiently inland that we would not have been
in danger anyway.

Thanks to those who have expressed concern. Please keep the people of Southeast
Asia who have suffered this catastrophe in your thoughts and prayers.

We’re Okay

When we saw the news this morning about the earthquake in Sumatra — just
across the Straits of Malacca from where we are — I commented that Malaysia
should be safe from the threat of tsunami because the earthquake was on the
far side of the island of Sumatra. Obviously, I was wrong.

As the death tolls continue to rise throughout the night, it’s clear that the
greatest devastation has occured in India and Sri Lanka, although it is chilling
to see the see images of destruction from Penang and Langkawi in Malaysia and
Phuket and Kerabi in Thailand, all of which we have visited. The southern end
of Peninsular Malaysia appears to have avoided the the destructive tsunamis.
In any case, Kuala Lumnpur is sufficiently inland that we would not have been
in danger anyway.

Thanks to those who have expressed concern. Please keep the people of Southeast
Asia who have suffered this catastrophe in your thoughts and prayers.

Stillness Part VI, Chapter 57

Ksenia stood at the top of a snowy hill, watching her son guide his sled along a well-worn path. The sled run began just behind the dacha, winding down through the garden and finally coming to a stop a little short of the low stone wall that divided the garden from the orchard. This was Ivor’s favorite course, and it was one of the few hilly stretches on the grounds that was sufficiently free of obstruction to meet his mother’s exacting standards. Even so, with each run she worried that he wouldn’t be able to stop and that he would collide with the orchard wall, although after dozens — if not hundreds — of runs, he had never even come close.

After the sled came to a gradual stop at the bottom of the hill, Ivor got up and began making his way back to the top, his sled in tow. The climb to the top of the hill took several minutes; the ride down lasted no more than thirty seconds. And yet Ivor would be perfectly happy to keep riding down and climbing back up all day. And Ksenia would be happy to watch him do so, at least until his teeth began to chatter and his normally warm brown complexion took on a bluish tint.

“Now there’s a fine Russian boy hard at play.”

Ksenia turned to see Sergei Banov standing behind her. One of Mr. Keyes’ oldest friends, Banov had also been a good friend to her over the years, as had his wife and daughter. Although it was never discussed openly, Ksenia knew that the self-described “retired intelligence man” had spent a good deal of time trying to discover what had become of Reuben Stone. And because it was never discussed, Ksenia deduced that the search was fruitless.

But she also knew that Sergei was not a man easily discouraged by long odds or an initial lack of success, as he had demonstrated two years earlier by finally tracking down the man who killed his son. Even Mr. Keyes thought that was impossible.

“Good morning, Sergei Petrovich,” said Ksenia.

Banov smiled broadly.

“Good morning, Ksenia Ivanova.”

“And good morning to you,” he continued, waving and calling out to Ivor.

The boy looked up from his trudging and solemnly returned the salute.

“Good morning, Uncle,” he said, only slightly raising his voice. At a young age, he had already observed how easily voices carried over the snow.

“See how he loves the snow,” Sergei said to Ksenia, indicating the boy’s steady trek back up the hill. “He is a true Russian, that one.”

Ksenia nodded.

“I was just thinking about that. His love of the cold he gets from his Russian mother. But his ability to withstand it he gets from his American father.”

VLB

Very Light Blogging, that is.

I know it’s been light for the past couple of weeks as I wrapped up my year at work, but it’s about to get a lot more so as the SpecuWife and I head off for three fun-filled weeks (or so) in her home town of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

I’m going to try to get on here every couple of days (if possible). I’ll do my best to at least keep up with publishing the new chapters of Stillness.

If you need to reach me, write to me at bowermaster-at-gmail-dot-com.

Merry Christmas, all!

Carry Moonbeams Home…

06_SpaceElevator.jpeg

A space elevator is a great idea who’s time is still a few decades away – at least on this planet. The incredible forces a cable from Earth to space will have to endure to support even its own weight will require further development of carbon nanotubes or some other exotic material.

The Moon is a different story:

ITF #160

In the Future…

…we’ll all end up on digital weight loss programs.

Futurist: M104 member Robert Hinkley, who asks:

Does that article make any sense?

Gadget lovers are so hungry for digital data many are carrying the equivalent of 10 trucks full ofpaper in “weight”.

Hmmm. Perhaps overlooking the minor detail that it’s not on paper?