We are the Children…

By | January 9, 2006

In my last post, “Robots: The Next Generation” I presented three options to help with the depopulation problem Europe and Japan are facing. Option 1: encourage your population to have more kids (nothing draconian – use tax credits). Option 2: open up the gates to immigration hoping for a melting pot effect (this is not going smoothly in France right now). And option 3: do what Japan seems set to do – build robots.

There’s a fourth option that appeals to many of us alive today – avoid death. If Aubrey de Grey and those he inspires successfully deliver life extension, we’d have longer productive lives. People who would have been satisfied to bide their last work days in do-nothing jobs would, if their youth were restored, retrain for more productive jobs. People who are presently discriminated against because of their age would come to be valued for their experience.

Even if people had to retrain every few years, such a society would be vastly more productive because they wouldn’t have to start from scratch as with children. The basic skills would already be mastered.

Those who are concerned that this could mean fewer children (it would) should take a closer look at much of the developed world. Children are already rare in much of Europe and Japan. Since that is the case, don’t these countries have a great incentive to keep their older population healthy longer?

It wouldn’t have to be an anti-child world. With scarcity comes added value. More resources could be devoted to each child to insure them the best education possible.

Also, the demographics in Europe and Japan answer those life extension critics who fear over-population. It’s not logical to worry about overpopulation when your country is losing a third of its population every generation.

So perhaps we have four options for dealing with depopulation. And none of them are mutually exclusive.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Phil Bowermaster

    Great idea. That’s what Old Europe needs…a bunch of really Old Europeans!

  • legion

    You are quite right about the solution. Experienced people have acquired more wisdom and perspective on problem solving. Society cannot afford to lose so many highly skilled and talented people.

    Here is the problem, for Europe. If Europeans lived to be 200 or longer, they would still expect to retire at age 55 on a state pension. It is their right, you see. Europe has become a great retirement home. Even north africans are immigrating to europe in order to retire early.

    Solving the longevity problem may be easier than solving the retirement compulsion problem.

  • Jake

    We have made great strides in improving the quality of life for older people. These are:

    1. blood pressure medicine.
    2. Statins for cholesterol
    4. Reducing the number who smoke
    5. SSRI anti-depressants
    6. Artificial joints

    Many who retire today will spend over 30 years in retirement because our average retirement age is 62. I am not sure that is healthy-either psychologically or economically. Today a vast majority of today’s retirees are capable of working until they are 72-75. Some are doing so with part-time jobs.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Stephen Gordon

    Phil, legion, and Jake:

    You guys are all hitting the same issue and you are all correct.

    If we have life extension we can’t have state pensions at 55. If we ever get full-fledged negligible senescence, no country will be able to have pensions at any age.

    To paraphrase one of my favorite movies, “H.I., you’re young and you got your health, what you want with a pension?”

  • Karl Hallowell

    OTOH, I think we’ll have a lot of people take themselves out of the job market for years at a time. And in theory, if you collect enough wealth together in sound investments, you can retire forever.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Stephen Gordon

    Karl:

    Exactly.

    Let’s say you have $2 million socked away in investments that reliably return 10% annually – that’s $200,000.

    Let’s say your effective tax rate (state plus fed) is 50% on that interest income. Your after-tax income would be $100,000 per year.

    Never touching the principal.

  • Phil Bowermaster

    $200K a year? That’s poverty wages. You can’t expect somebody to get by on that kind of money. That will barely cover rent on a slum in the worst part of town.

    In 2150, that is.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Stephen Gordon

    Phil:
    :-)

    Yeah, I guess even the lucky guy with $2 mil working for him might have to get off his butt and do something every decade or so.

    …to stay out of the 2150 era slums.