Monthly Archives: May 2010

Survivors

Nowhere is the cliche that life is short more true than on the battlefield. On Memorial Day, we honor the memory of those who died in service to their country. And while some of those who have given their lives have done so at a shockingly young age, I think it’s fair to say that all who are killed in combat have, in an important sense, died before their time.

Then there are the survivors. Some of them hang in for a remarkably long time, living as long a life as any of their contemporaries can hope for. By the time I was born, the last of the Civil War veterans had died. Apparently there were veterans of the Spanish American War among us until the early 90′s, although this group has never received the kind of attention bestowed on the veterans of the bigger wars.

When I was a kid, the term “veteran” applied to three groups: Korean War veterans, who were guys about the same age as my dad; World war II veterans who were a bit older than my Dad, and therefore old; and World War I veterans who were a bit older than my grandfather, and therefore unimaginably old. (Vietnam vets started emerging as a distinct class in my early teen years.)

Today the remaining World War I veterans really are quite old, even by my vastly adjusted definition of the term. There are only six left, according to the linked article, and two of those have not met the documentation requirements to be confirmed as bona fide World War I vets, although I will personally take their word for it. The youngest members of that group are 106 years old. Sadly, it’s clear that the Memorial Day is coming very soon when there will be no more surviving World War I veterans.

I heard not long ago that we are currently losing World War II veterans at a rate of 1000 a day. That estimate seems high to me, well over a quarter of a million a year, but it is possible. I wonder how that rate compares to the death rate during the war years? Has the death rate caught up? It’s very sad that we would regard a death rate of 1000 per day during wartime as a tragic necessity — with equal emphasis on the “tragic” and “necessity” parts — but today we view the same rate of loss as unremarkable as it is unavoidable.

In 25 years, the remaining World War II veterans will be abut the same age as the remaining World War I vets are today. There will be many more of them, in part a testament to improvements in medical technology, and in part a reflection of the difference in scale between the two wars. However, there may be another important difference between the two groups. Perhaps some of those surviving World War II vets in 2035 will have something that I wish the World War I vets could have, but I think very unlikely at this point — an open-ended life expectancy.

If so, that means that Memorial Day 50 years from now, or even 125 years from now, we may still have World War II survivors among us. To them, and to all of us, I offer my Memorial Day wish:

Live to see it.

Predicting the Present: Answers

The real ones have links; the fakes ones don’t.

 

Newly Discovered “Monster Planet” Rewrites Rules for Gas Giants, Rocky Worlds
Soviet Moon Lander Discovered Water on The Moon in 1976
SpaceX capsule has ‘new car’ smell, astronauts say

Face-reading software to judge the mood of the masses
Modified Nintendo Wii System Provides Oil Rig Management Interface
Mind-controlled video games become reality

Avengers Inspires Real-Life “Iron Man”
New adhesive device could let humans walk on walls
Teenager finds solution to 350 year old math and physics problem

New stem cell technique promises abundance of key heart cells
Electronic Implants Restore, Enhance Sense of Smell
Nanomedicines on their way through the body

3D blood vessels could aid artificial organs
Robotic jellyfish could one day patrol oceans, clean oil spills, and detect pollutants
Linux could soon replace Mac OS on select laptop models

Jeremy Irons Is a Nitwit

I realize the headline violates our rule against personal attacks. But I just have to make an exception in the case of Mr. Irons, who has achieved a level of asininity rare even for a movie star making comments on global issues.

Before we delve into the really asinine stuff, let me highlight one area of agreement:

In a film on the website 1billionhungry.org, Irons declares: “People around the world suffer hunger — 1 billion. Now that’s bad, worse than bad, that’s crazy! We’ve got to get mad. I want you to get mad. I want you to get up right now, stick your head out of the window and yell, ‘I’m mad as hell’.”

Okay, setting aside the very tired reference to a 35-year-old movie (that he wasn’t even in), I agree that we should be appalled about the number of hungry people in the world. And I am completely behind programs aimed at getting food to the hungry, or better yet, putting food-production capability into the hands of the hungry. Then we get this:

Irons, who owns seven houses, including a pink castle in Co Cork, Ireland, believes a new economic vision is needed in the wake of the global financial crisis. “We are facing an economic revolution,” he said. “I don’t think things can ever be the same again. The next generation will have to think laterally and find ways to cope with this.”

Here’s some lateral thinking. Jeremy, I will listen to what you have to say about the need for an economic revolution after you go sell six of your seven houses and give the proceeds to feed the hungry. That would prove that you’re serious about revolution, and not just some reeking hypocrite who thinks it’s okay to personally benefit from a system that you condemn because you’re an “artist.”

But it gets much worse.

“One always returns to the fact that there are just too many of us, the population continues to rise and it’s unsustainable,” he said in an interview with The Sunday Times. “I think we have to find ways where we’re not having to scrap our effluent junk and are a really sustainable planet.”

Natural systems of selfregulation may stop population growth, he said: “I suspect there’ll be a very big outbreak of something because the world always takes care of itself.”

The 61-year-old actor went on to speculate that either disease or war, “probably disease”, could become nature’s way of halving the population.

Have you ever noticed how the people who call for there to be “less of us” never seem to think that they are part of the problem? If there are too many people on the planet, what are you doing here still taking up space and using resources?

Anyhow, it seems that Irons is worried that a billion people are hungry, but he nods approvingly at scenarios wherein more than three billion people get wiped out by disease or natural disaster. Anyone who thinks that having half the population of the planet die is a “solution” to anything is a moral cretin of unspeakable proportions. However, I doubt that he actually believes this. He just hasn’t thought through what he’s saying.

So I’ll stick with with my initial diagnosis: nitwit.

Five Arguments Against Four Arguments Against Immortaility

Via Michael Anissimov, Annalee Newitz at i09 lays out the case against immortality. While she raises some interesting points, I find her arguments less than persuasive.

Let’s begin.

1. We will no longer be human.

…What if all those implants and genome hacks transform us into Locutus of Borg or the Daleks? What good is living forever if you are just a shell of your former self? If you have lost your individuality and become a killing machine?

Okay, first off the specific examples given here seem to more in support of the third argument (which we’ll get to in a moment) than they do a generalized fear of no longer being human. As Jamais Cascio argues (I think very convincingly) elsewhere on i09, we have always been posthuman. Humanity is a process. It has already taken us far from what we were when it started. Maybe some of Lucy’s contemporaries argued that if we continue down this road of walking upright and developing bigger brains, we’ll no longer be australopithecines. If so, well, I guess in a sense they were right. But fortunately, their arguments did not hold sway.

As to the points supporting this argument, I would like to abstract them just a bit. There is no question that technology may lead us in some gruesome and horrifying directions, but I don’t take either the Borg or Daleks scenarios terribly seriously. Let’s just say that life extension, continued modification of the human genome, and a merger of human biology with technology could lead to some very bad outcomes: some expected, some not.

Therefore, the argument goes, we should avoid these technologies.

Allow me to make a similar argument regarding a completely different set of circumstances where things can go horribly wrong. While the percentages are pretty small, every year a certain number of people are emotionally and/or physically abused, sometimes even murdered, by their spouses.

Therefore, we must conclude, no one should ever get married. In a similar vein, no one should ever ride a bicycle, seeing as people sometimes die in bicycle accidents. Also, we should never build power plants of any kind — terrorists might blow them up.

Obviously that’s absurd. For any proposed action, the possibility of bad things happening, even horrible things happening, has to be weighed against the benefits of acting and the cost of not acting. We have to look at how serious the risks are and how they might be mitigated. If the fact that something terrible might happen was reason enough not to do something, without a careful analysis of costs and benefits, we would never do anything.

2. Whatever body you’re in, there you are.

So you’ve ported your consciousness into a cyberheaven, or a giant blue alien with sexytime hair, or a deadly robot who wears a plunger on his head. The thing is, you still have the same problems.

Sounds good! I like being me. And I like being alive, problems and all.

What an awesome alternative outlook on life we are offered here. “I can put up with my loathsome existence for 70 years or so, but that’s it.” Frankly, anyone who thinks life is not worth extending because one will still be oneself and one will still have problems needs to explain what exactly the rationale is for not having committed suicide already.

3. Our augmented bodies and minds will be hackable.

As computer security nerds already know, every new release means a new vulnerability. Your awesome brain-computer interface may give you unlimited memory but it also means that an evil hacker can take over your consciousness by exploiting a buffer overflow in your brain.

Okay, terrible things might happen. (See item 1, second counter-argument.) This particular horrible thing is that we might get hacked. Everyone reading this post on a computer device, please stop reading and destroy that device right now. Don’t you realize that it’s potentially hackable?

If the fear is that it’s specifically people who are hackable, it seems that’s a risk we face socially and culturally (perhaps memetically?) anyway. How do things like this occur?

4. We’ll have to deal with the immortality divide.

In a future where people have access to live-extending biotech, wealth could mean living for centuries, growing more powerful. People born into poverty will have even fewer chances to compete against the rich, and the free market could stagnate. Democratic human societies might ossify into rigid, caste-based feudalism once again.

Isn’t this just the digital divide argument all over again? Technology is going to create a permanent barrier between the digital haves and have-nots. Only about 20% of people in the developing world (as of a few years ago) had access to the internet. On the other hand, nearly half had access to a mobile phone. Let’s just assume for a moment that those are fixed percentages (which is nonsense, see how the lines are trending up?) and that one or the other might be comparable to the distribution we are eventually able to achieve for life extension technologies.

If 50% of the developing world is denied life extension technologies, should we all be denied life extension technologies? Maybe we should give the people in the developing world a vote on this. If I were one of them, I think I’d rather take my chances on the coin flip than deny the technology to everyone. Even if 80% were denied these technologies, it’s not just the large percentage in the developed world who gets punished if we don’t adopt them. We just end up leaving 100% of the developing world out rather than 80%.

If the argument is that it’s not fair that people get left out, I agree. Life is shockingly unfair. If the argument is that those technologies should be available to everyone, I agree with that, too. It’s just a question of how we get there. There will probably be some imbalance along the way, just as there currently is with internet and mobile phone connections.

That’s not a reason to relinquish those technologies. It’s a reason to move ahead with them.

Newitz ends by saying that she really isn’t against moving ahead with life extension technologies, as long as we don’t do it in such a way as to impoverish other areas of life. Well heck — one could make the same argument about research into, say, heart disease. She concludes with an argument for “social” immortality, which I of course am all for. The she gives us this tidbit:

But this can only be accomplished if people today are willing to pursue forms of science that aren’t just aimed at augmenting the mega-elites, but will also lead to species longevity.

Darn that cabal of mega-elites! They’re so sneaky getting people like me to support their cause, all the while thinking that I’m working on eliminating poverty and illness for everyone. If only I realized that it’s a stark and unavoidable binary choice. Either I sacrifice my own existence for the greater good or I greedily benefit myself at the expense of others. Believing that new technologies can benefit us both individually and socially simply doesn’t fit well with the literary tropes about class warfare and scarcity — mostly drawn up in the 19th through mid-20th centuries, although still popular today — on which Newitz apparently bases her worldview.

How oddly unfuturistic for someone who “comes from the future!”

UPDATE: Michael Anissimov comments, “This appears to be an early form of co-processing, where content from an external device (in this case, poor television shows) heavily intertwines itself with the thinking processes of the writer, to the point where reality cannot be distinguished from fiction.”

FastForward Radio with Special Guest Alex Lightman

What’s next for humanity? As a civilization, we’re facing new challenges, new opportunities, potential risks, and potential rewards that go far beyond anything we have experienced before. H+ Executive Director Alex Lightman joins Phil and Stephen to provide a sneak peek of the upcoming H+ Summit, June 12-13 at Harvard University:


The H+ Summit is a two day event that explores how humanity will be radically changed by technology in the near future. Visionary speakers will explore the potential of technology to modify your body, mind, life, and world.

What will it mean to be a human in this next phase of technological development? How can we prepare now for coming changes?

We foresee the feasibility of redesigning the human condition and overcoming such constraints as the inevitability of aging, limitations on human and artificial intellects, unchosen psychology, lack of resources, and our confinement to the planet earth. The possibilities are broad and exciting. The H+ Summit will provide a venue to discuss these future scenarios and to hear exciting presentations by the leaders of the ongoing H+ (r)evolution.

A few seats are still available. Don’t delay. Sign up now.

Some background on the event here.

More here.

FFRNewLogo9J.jpg

Robo-Pharmacists

Pretty much the sort of thing I’ve been talking about:

Dispensing medicine is about to get more efficient. New Jersey’s Holy Name Hospital is using robot pharmacists to package, store and dispense medications, while an automated system at an Ohio children’s hospital is preparing I.V. drugs for patients. Automation in medicine is reducing human error and cutting costs, and because these robots can handle pills in a fraction of the time it takes humans, we should be noticing a lot more of them around real soon.

Read the whole thing. Automation is the key to addressing the fundamental scarcity of health care that underlies the current (and probably most past and future) debates about whether providing health care should be a primarily public or private concern.