Dispatches from a rapidly changing, rapidly improving world

Special Dispatch #9 Thanksgiving, 2008

This concludes our special Thanksgiving series. Thanks for joining us!

Item 9

Honda
unveils robotic legs that could improve people’s mobility

HONDA has unveiled a new walking assist machine designed to make it easier
for the elderly to climb stairs and help factory workers.

The computerised leg device is the latest addition to walking technology
developed by the Japanese automaker, which announced the world’s first two-legged
walking robot, ASIMO, in 2000.

The 6.5kg device – consisting of a saddle, leg-like frames and shoes – can
reduce the load on users’ legs while walking or climbing and descending stairs
by supporting bodyweight, Honda said.

Honda said the motor-powered machine is still at an experimental stage, but
elderly people and people undergoing rehabilitation who need support for their
leg muscles and joints are the main target.

The Good News

Technology that promises to improve the mobility of the elderly and the disabled
is a wonderful thing. Of course, the endgame here is to develop medical technologies
which provide everyone with sound and healthy bodies throughout their long lives
(and progress
is definitely being made along those lines) and to develop full-blown robots
to assist us in all aspects of our lives.

This is nice early step towards both f those ends. We’ll take it.

Live to see it!

Let’s get serious about how rapidly the world is improving

Special Dispatch #8 Thanksgiving, 2008

Our extra-long weekend of good news just keeps chugging along.

Item 8

Only One Year of Below-Average Growth in a Decade-Long Strong Global Economic Expansion?

According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent economic outlook,
world real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2007 to 3.75% percent
in 2008 and then to 2.2% in 2009 (see chart above), with the downturn led
by advanced economies.

Looking forward, the IMF predicts that world real GDP will rebound to above-average
growth rates of 4.2% (2010), 4.8% (2011), 4.8% (2012) and 4.7% (2013). Growth
for the advanced economies is forecast to be above 2% by 2010, with even higher
growth of between 2.5% to 3% between 2011 and 2013.

The Good News

Dude, where’s my Great Depression?

Economic growth has definitely taken a performance nosedive for the big players,
but note that there is no talk of worldwide negative economic growth — only
a slow down in real growth which is not expected to last.

2002-08:
60% Growth in World Per-Capita Real GDP

The 60% growth in world per-capita real GDP between 2002 and 2008 is probably
one of the greatest periods of economic growth in such a short period of time
in history, and is definitely part of the broader, more upbeat context of
this period in history.

Nice to see some economic news that isn’t all gloom and doom. You know, when
the current recession finally showed up, it seemed that we had been hearing
about "economic slowing" and "recession worries" for a number
of years leading up to it How interesting that all that hand-wringing took place
during one of the greatest periods of economic growth the world has ever seen.

Almost makes you want to think twice about all the hand-wringing that’s going
on right now, doesn’t it?

(Hat-tip to Michael Sargent. And many thanks to Mark Perry for sharing the
encouraging news.)

Live to see it!

The good news keeps rolling along

Special Dispatch #7 Thanksgiving, 2008

We’re still at it, tracking good news stories throughout the Thanksgiving
weekend.

Item 7

Fountain
of Youth: Drug Restores Muscles

A daily dose of an investigational medication has been found to restore muscle
mass in the arms and legs of older adults and improve some of their biochemistry
to levels found in healthy young adults, suggesting an anti-frailty drug has
been found.

The drug, called MK-677, was evaluated for its safety and effectiveness in
a study that showed the drug restored 20 percent of muscle mass loss associated
with normal aging. In fact, levels of growth hormone (GH) and of insulin-like
growth factor I (IGF- I) in healthy seniors who took the drug increased to
the levels found in healthy young adults, said Michael O. Thorner, a professor
of internal medicine and neurosurgery at the University of Virginia Health
System.

The Good News

As we often point out when the subject of life extension comes up, we aren’t
interested in extending human frailty, but rather human vitality. We want to
see people living longer so that they can continue to work, create, enjoy their
friends and families, and realize their dreams. To do that, we need sound minds
and bodies. Muscle mass is a key part of the "sound bodies" requirement.

Live to see it!

There are actually many more good news stories than we can hope to track!

Special Dispatch #6 Thanksgiving, 2008

"Black Friday" has arrived, the most media-covered shopping
day of the year, if not actually the biggest. If you’ve decided to start your
holiday shopping today, don’t worry that you’ll be missing anything. We’ll
keep tracking the good news, and it will be here for you when you get back
from the mall.

Item 6

How
Geothermal Heat Pumps Could Power the Future

A geothermal heat pump (sometimes called a ground source heat pump) can work
anywhere.

If you’ve ever touched the tubes on the back of a working refrigerator, you
know that it is pulling heat from the inside and radiating it to the rest
of the kitchen.

A heat pump is like a refrigerator run backwards. It pulls heat from outdoors
(as if it were trying to cool the outside) and releases it indoors.

In both a fridge and a heat pump, a system of tubes circulates a refrigerant
fluid that becomes hot when compressed and cold when expanded.

To heat a home, the hot compressed fluid is typically passed through a heat
exchanger that warms the air that feeds into a duct system. This "spent"
fluid is then cooled through expansion and brought into contact with a ground
source, so it can "recharge" with heat.

Although pumping the fluid requires electricity, a geothermal heat pump is
more efficient than any alternative heating system. In fact, current models
can produce as much as 4 kilowatts of heat for every 1 kilowatt of electricity.
This is because they are not generating heat, but rather moving it from the
outside.

The Good News

These systems can work anywhere. (Well, okay, the linked article says "anywhere
but Antarctic.") To heat an average-sized house, you need a hole that extends
150-200 feet into the ground or, if you have some land available, a small network
of horizontal pipes buried about six feet deep. Geothermal systems can provide
air conditioning, too.

Such systems will initially be more expensive than conventional heating systems,
but they will pay for themselves with the savings they provide. Imagine a hybrid
system in which a non-carbon-emitting power source such as solar, wind, or nuclear
provides the electricity, and then geothermal provides the heat or cooling.
Very nice!

Live to see it!

Today is a great day not to be a turkey

Special Dispatch #5 Thanksgiving, 2008

We’re counting down reasons to be thankful to live in such an amazing
world all Thanksgiving weekend long. Here’s item 5.

Item 5

Scientists
Decode Set of Cancer Genes

For the first time, researchers have decoded all the genes of a person with
cancer and found a set of mutations that may have caused the disease or aided
its progression.

Using cells donated by a woman in her 50s who died of leukemia, the scientists
sequenced all the DNA from her cancer cells and compared it to the DNA from
her own normal, healthy skin cells. Then, they zeroed in on 10 mutations that
occurred only in the cancer cells, apparently spurring abnormal growth, preventing
the cells from suppressing that growth and enabling them to fight off chemotherapy.

The Good News

Since most cancer is not inherited, understanding the mutations that contribute
to cancer in an individual provides hope for providing personalized cancer therapies
based on the patient’s genetic profile. This could be the key to understanding
why some therapies work better than others for certain patients, and helping
to get all patients onto the course of treatment best suited for the way their
bodies are likely to react.

Moreover, a broader understanding of the "cancer genome" can only
lead to a better understanding of cancer and the development of even more effective
treatments for it.

Live to see it!

Things you might have guessed you wouldn’t live to see, but you did!

Special Dispatch #4 Thanksgiving, 2008

We’ll keep churning out the good news items all Thanksgiving weekend
long.

Item 4

Passenger
space travel ‘by middle of next decade’

Passengers will be able to fly through space from London to New York in 45
minutes by the middle of the next decade, experts believe.

Sydney could be only two and a half hours away and it could take less time
to get to Tokyo than it does to take a train from London to Manchester.

Walter Peeters, dean of the International Space University in Strasbourg,
said that what has been regarded as the stuff of science fiction is close
to becoming reality.

He is among a number of scientists who are convinced that "space tourism"
and "sub-orbital point to point travel" (SPTP) are on the point
of becoming a flourishing industries.

The former is aimed at the well-heeled who are ready to dig deep in their
pockets for the experience of space travel for its own sake which on Virgin
Galactic is $200,000 or around £125,000.

But this is just a staging post for the ultimate goal, traveling through
space to get from one side of the globe to the other in a couple of hours.

The advocates of SPTP see it as the 21st century equivalent of taking a trip
on Concorde – and appealing to the same sort of clientele.

The Good News

Space tourism and sub-orbital point-to-point travel (SPTP) have been the stuff
of "the future" my entire life. Some of us were disappointed when
SPTP didn’t show up in the latter decades of the previous century — there was
a time when we definitely seemed to be heading in that direction — but nobody
ever really expected space tourism. That is to say, there weren’t any timetables
associated with it. It was wacky, far-out stuff: something that would come
along only after the serious applications of rocket technology were given the
chance to prove themselves.

How interesting that it now seems that space tourism might be the business
model that enables the development of SPTP. Didn’t see that one coming,
now did we?

The Downside

Such travel will not come cheap. One estimate suggests a ticket for a round
trip taking in London, Tokyo and New York would cost more than £43,000.

Yeeouch! That’s like, more than 100,000 US dollars for one trip.

On the other hand — don’t worry. Those are 2050 pounds / dollars we’re talking
about. Plus, the price is bound to go down from there.

Live to see it!

Mashed potatoes and gravy for the hungry mind

Special Dispatch #3 Thanksgiving, 2008

We’re serving up a feast of good news this Thanksgiving. Here’s the third
course.

Item 3

Solar
Sailor Sun Sails To Be Fitted to Chinese Cargo Ships

Late last month, the Australian Solar Sailor company announced they’d
signed a deal with China’s biggest shipping line, COSCO, to fit some of their
jumbo jet sized solar-powered sails to a tanker and bulk carrier.

The 30 metre long sails, festooned in photovoltaic panels are expected to
catch enough wind to reduce fuel costs by between 20% and 40%, whilst those
PV cells will provide the ships with 5% of their electricity. A computer automatically
angles the sails for maximum wind and solar efficiency, and if all goes to
plan the sails will have recovered their initial cost within four years.

The Good News

Where technology is concerned, what goes around frequently comes around. Ideas
that have been replaced by two or three generations of subsequent technology
suddenly resurface as new and viable. A good example of this sort of thing is
the mechanical model of computing — something Charles
Babbage would have been perfectly comfortable with — re-emerging with molecular
nanotechnology.

100 years ago, sailing technology was all about obsolete for serious shipping
applications. But it could make acomeback today, making ships much more efficient
and environmentally friendly.

Not to mention cool-looking.

Live to see it!

More proof that if you’re not excited about the future, you’re not paying attention

Special Dispatch #2 Thanksgiving, 2008

Our special Thanksgiving series of good news series continues.

Item 2

Japanese researchers
make brain tissues from stem cells

Japanese researchers said Thursday they had created functioning human brain
tissues from stem cells, a world first that has raised new hopes for the treatment
of disease. Stem cells taken from human embryos have been used to form tissues
of the cerebral cortex, the supreme control tower of the brain, according
to researchers at the government-backed research institute Riken.

The tissues self-organised into four distinct zones very similar to the structure
seen in human foetuses, and conducted neuro-activity such as transmitting
electrical signals, the institute said.

The Good News

Well, let’s count the possible applications here:

1. Treatment for brain damage sustained via disease or trauma. The conventional
wisdom has always been that recovery from brain damage requires building new
connections and otherwise working around damage that has to be taken as a permanent
fact of life. If we can grow new brain tissue, this is no longer the case.

2. Treatment for degenerative disease. There are a number of very exciting
possible treatments being developed for diseases such as Parkinsons
and Alzheimers.
The ability to produce vital new brain tissue can only be a boon to fighting
these diseases.

3. Life Extension. If we’re going to live longer, it’s a cinch that
we’re going to need longer-lasting brains. This technology can help make that
possible.

4. Performance Enhancement. Growing new brain tissue might be more than
a way of keeping youthful mental stamina and performance well into our senior
years; perhaps it would enable us to augment and upgrade our brain performance
at any age.

Live to see it!

Reasons to be thankful in a world gone right

Special Dispatch #1 Thanksgiving, 2008

I couldn’t find the time the last couple of weeks to do a whole Better
All the Time roundup, so I’m going to do this one in pieces throughout the
Thanksgiving weekend. This is like one of those Thanksgiving marathons they
run on the cable channels– Andy Griffith or whatever — only with good news
stories!

Item 1

Mini
nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000
homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the
US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb.

The miniature reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no weapons-grade material,
have no moving parts and will be nearly impossible to steal because they will
be encased in concrete and buried underground.

Other companies are known to be designing micro-reactors. Toshiba has been
testing 200KW reactors measuring roughly six metres by two metres. Designed
to fuel smaller numbers of homes for longer, they could power a single building
for up to 40 years.

The Good News

Cheap, clean, and virtually limitless energy was the vision that originally
sold the world on nuclear power more than half a century ago. While safety concerns
have slowed the adoption and use of nuclear fission in the US to a fraction
of what it was expected to be by now, other countries have made rapid progress–
notably France Ukraine, Sweden, Slovakia, and Belgium, all of which derive more
than 50% of their electricity from nuclear. France leads the world, deriving
77% of its power from nuclear.

Now the US has the opportunity to turn things around by leapfrogging earlier
models of nuclear power production in favor of newer models that offer greater
efficiency and safety. These miniature plants are one possible approach, making
small-scale distribution of nuclear power available for the first time.

Live to see it!