Here are the results of our recent survey about the Technological Singularity. The breakdown on the big question was that 94% of you think the Singularity will occur in some form or another, while 6% think it won’t. Several readers observed that there is something incongruous about making predictions about the Singularity — it being the bound beyond which prediction is no longer possible. But that didn’t slow too many of you down.
A few random observations:
The vast majority of participants believe that the Singularity is coming relatively soon. More than 60% believe that it will occur within the next 45 years; more than 80% believe that it will occur in the next 70 years.
There was a nice spread over all the different ways listed that the Singularity might start. About 57% believe that it will be intentional; about 43% believe that it will be an accident.
Nobody bit on “enslavement of the human race” to machines as a worst-case outcome. On the best-case side, there weren’t many takers for “finding God” or “preserving the environment.”
The most popular write-in for the best-case scenario was “all of the above.”
More people voted for the Silent Singularity than for any other variety, good or bad.
One poetic participant wrote: “The purpose of thought is thought. The boon of the singularity is the singularity.” He or she might be on to something there. When we talk about all the “benefits” of the Singularity, we are no doubt a bit like poor Tom Canty in The Prince and the Pauper — hiding away the Great Seal of England because it made such a nifty nutcracker.
Finally, I must add a word of recognition for the Singularity skeptic who suggested that God will one day grab us by the lapels and ask us what kind of crack we were smoking. Thank you very much for participating.
Here, then, are the results in their entirety.