Singularity Survey Results

By | April 12, 2006

Here are the results of our recent survey about the Technological Singularity. The breakdown on the big question was that 94% of you think the Singularity will occur in some form or another, while 6% think it won’t. Several readers observed that there is something incongruous about making predictions about the Singularity — it being the bound beyond which prediction is no longer possible. But that didn’t slow too many of you down.

A few random observations:

The vast majority of participants believe that the Singularity is coming relatively soon. More than 60% believe that it will occur within the next 45 years; more than 80% believe that it will occur in the next 70 years.

There was a nice spread over all the different ways listed that the Singularity might start. About 57% believe that it will be intentional; about 43% believe that it will be an accident.

Nobody bit on “enslavement of the human race” to machines as a worst-case outcome. On the best-case side, there weren’t many takers for “finding God” or “preserving the environment.”

The most popular write-in for the best-case scenario was “all of the above.”

More people voted for the Silent Singularity than for any other variety, good or bad.

One poetic participant wrote: “The purpose of thought is thought. The boon of the singularity is the singularity.” He or she might be on to something there. When we talk about all the “benefits” of the Singularity, we are no doubt a bit like poor Tom Canty in The Prince and the Pauper — hiding away the Great Seal of England because it made such a nifty nutcracker.

Finally, I must add a word of recognition for the Singularity skeptic who suggested that God will one day grab us by the lapels and ask us what kind of crack we were smoking. Thank you very much for participating.

Here, then, are the results in their entirety.

  • http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog Michael Anissimov

    Amazing survey, first of its kind. The overwhelming people who voted in the 2025-2050 range versus the before 2025 range is quite telling. A few people seem to be mixing up the Singularity with a mathematical function of some sort. The idea that the Singularity is inevitable and predestined from the Big Bang is popular.

    The defeat of aging, death and poverty “won’t be a big deal”? According to the majority that voted for both Silent Singularity and the defeat of aging as a boon, that is.

    These survey results are especially accurate because the Singularity is defined as “smarter-than-human intelligence driving progress” rather than “technological acceleration in general”.

    To the person who wrote, “I don’t favor a negative scenario”, I’m sure everyone agrees with you – no one “favors” a negative scenario. It’s just that negative scenarios are the darndest things, they happen even if you disfavor them.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Phil Bowermaster

    My bad on the “favor” language; probably should have used the word “expect.”

  • Samuel Kleiner

    One poetic participant wrote: “The purpose of thought is thought. The boon of the singularity is the singularity.”

    Thank you, that was me. I don’t seem to remember using the word “boon”, though.

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Phil Bowermaster

    Samuel –

    You were probably just responding to the specific language of the question:

    ” If you favor a positive scenario for the Singularity, what will be the greatest boon to humanity that will derive from it?”

  • Karl Hallowell

    Michael, you wrote:

    A few people seem to be mixing up the Singularity with a mathematical function of some sort.

    I think the confusion is understandable. After all, the Singularity is named after a mathematical object, the essential singularity which is a property of some functions.

    Personally, I think a better analogue is to consider the Singularity as a phase change. But I don’t think this is the place for that argument.

  • Phil Bowermaster

    Karl,

    Personally, I think a better analogue is to consider the Singularity as a phase change. But I don’t think this is the place for that argument.

    If not here, where? This site isn’t just for blonde jokes and Ernest Borgnine admiration, you know. :-)

    Tell us more about the Singularity as a phase change. I’m intrigued.

  • Samskolan

    Hello Samuel, if you find this then send a mail ASAP to oscar.haglind@mil.se

  • Visual Critic

    I bet the singularity’s super intelligent spawn will know better that to use needless label redirection on their bar graphs. No need at all for those uninformative “Question #” titles and “A, B, C… ” labels. Just put the words on the charts.