Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

FastForward Radio — Airships to Space

Special Guest Ramez Naam joins Phil and Stephen for a look at a grab-bag of exciting future-related developments:

Airships Offer Gateways to Space

Moore’s Law and Solar Power

iPhones and Blackberries Now Serving as Extensions of our Minds?

Experience the World as an Elf or a Giant

Erasing Signs of Aging in Human Cells

Inspiration matters

 

About Our Guest

Ramez Naam is a computer scientist based in Seattle, Washington. He is the author of More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement (Broadway Books, 2005), for which he was awarded the 2005 HG Wells Award for Contributions to Transhumanism.

Ramez led teams working on early versions of Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Internet Explorer, and most recently the Bing search engine, where he served as overall Director of Program Management for one year and led Program Management for the Ranking and Relevance team for 5 years.

Between stints at Microsoft he founded and ran Apex Nanotechnologies, a company working on advanced software tools for molecular design. We were, as they say, a bit ahead of our time.

He is currently at work on a near future science fiction novel centered around advances in neurotechnology and a non-fiction book on overcoming peak oil, climate change, and the other resource and environmental challenges that face us.

His blog is Unbridled Speculation.

 

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As the Bubble Bursts

It’s been widely noted that, over the past couple of decades, higher education costs have skyrocketed far out of proportion to the economic benefits that degrees provide. Higher education looks like a bubble, not too unlike the dot-com and real estate bubbles that preceded it.

Not everyone is comfortable with such a characterization. Framing a discussion of education strictly in terms of how much it costs versus how much the recipients of it earn seems crass to some. What about the intrinsic value of education? What about the social benefits of having an educated populace? Actually, those might have been better questions to ask back before the price grew so outrageous. For better or for worse, these days colleges and grad schools are largely seen as credential mills. The value of their product is expanded economic opportunity for the consumers of that product.

It’s important to note that the schools themselves have done as much as anyone to foster and promote such a model. This puts them in (to say the least) an awkward position now that the economic reality is such that we’re even beginning to wonder whether a college degree should be a requirement for many jobs.

Moreover, if what we’re really interested in is the intrinsic value of education and the social benefits of having an educated populace, it’s pretty exciting to note that education qua education has never been more widely available than it is today, often at little or no cost. This list of 12 dozen places to educate yourself online for free provides a nice overview. Even if over-priced institutions of higher learning decide they want to reclaim the value proposition of education as intrinsically valuable, they are going to be up against some pretty stiff competition — at a price that’s hard to beat.

So what future is there for institutions of higher learning? What function will they serve post-bubble?

If credentials become less important, and education increasingly becomes a do-it-yourself affair, these schools still have an important role to play. As Brent Iverson explains it, universities need to be in the research business and, maybe even more importantly, the inspiration business:

When a world-class researcher inspires young science students, the practical benefits multiply downstream to drive our economy and at the same time create the next generation of inspirational science and engineering teachers…

When my career is over, I hope that I will have been able to inspire students to find their passions and realize their biggest dreams. As we embrace change and build the future of higher education together, we must never forget that inspiration, a uniquely human interaction that occurs when a college student meets a true scholar, needs to remain an essential and celebrated element of higher education… Information, especially in the technical fields, becomes obsolete, but inspiration lasts a lifetime.

Institutions of higher learning will still have an important role to play after the bubble bursts. The demand for credentials may ease up somewhat, but it’s hardly going to go away. These institutions will continue to drive learning through research, which is not (yet) ready to be outsourced to the cloud. And they will continue to provide the kinds of interactions Iverson is talking about.

Most universities at least pay lip service to the idea that they exist to inspire a new generation of thinkers to move human knowledge along. But if these institutions want to be relevant in the future, they are going to have to go well beyond lip service.

Cross-posted from Transparency Revolution.

FastForward Radio — Our 7 Billionth Customer!

Phil and Stephen  continue last week’s discussion about healthy life extension. Why is it that there’s something suspect about life, and feeling good about life, while pessimism is seen as a sign of intelligence…and death is almost revered?

Case in point: world population reaches 7 billion. Is this good news or bad news?

Plus: other future-related topics!

Join Us!

Show starts at 10E, 9C, 8M, 7P

Hosts: Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon

 

FastForward Radio — Drugs Required?

Hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon discuss the possibility that drug usage might one day be required for certain lines of work. In particular, might  doctors be required to take performance-enahncing drugs?

Plus: an Emperor Norton update!

The book Phil mentioned is A Whole New Mind by Daniel Pink. If eating magic mushrooms becomes a job prerequisite it will be because of the shift described in this book.

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Doctors on Drugs

Yes, sometimes the access that doctors have to drugs leads to poor decisions and bad behavior, but that’s not what the title of this piece refers to. We’re asking a totally different question, here: what if doctors were required to take certain drugs?

The question comes from Instapundit, who put it this way:

IF “SMART DRUGS” IMPROVE DOCTORS’ PERFORMANCE, is it malpractice not to take them?

The question is not as facetious as it seems. The linked article describes a study showing that doctors on a performance-enhancing drug called modafinil were able to make better decisions faster than their counterparts who have not taken any “smart” drugs. If smart drug usage becomes a reliable predictor of better outcomes, it’s possible that doctors will feel increasing pressure to take them. It’s even possible that those who do will advertise that fact so that people who want an “enhanced” doctor will know who to look for.

But still, it seems unlikely that it would ever come down to doctors being required to take such drugs. At least it does to us, today. (In a few years the idea might not sound so crazy.) Although it’s not hard to imagine non-performance-enhanced doctors eventually paying higher malpractice insurance premiums.

Requiring performance-enhancing drugs for some occupations might prove a slippery slope. Consider this fascinating development:

Fed-funded research: magic mushrooms create ‘openness’

A single high dose of the hallucinogen psilocybin, the active ingredient in “magic mushrooms,” was enough to bring about a measureable and lasting personality change — “openness” — lasting at least a year in nearly 60 percent of the 51 participants in a new study, say Johns Hopkins researchers.

By “openness,” they mean traits related to imagination, aesthetics, feelings, abstract ideas, and general broad-mindedness, the researchers said. Changes in these traits, measured on a widely used and scientifically validated personality inventory, were larger in magnitude than changes typically observed in healthy adults over decades of life experiences, the scientists say.

As described, “openness” would be a valuable trait for a new hire in any of thousands of different jobs. Maybe the pre-employment screening of the future will be an entirely different kind of drug test — one to make sure that the candidate has eaten hallucinogenic mushrooms at least once in the past year.

(Cross-posted from Transparency Revolution.)

FastForward Radio — Optimism and Health

Hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon discuss whether thinking positive can make a difference in how well we avoid or recover from illness, how we deal with stress and depression, and how long we live.

Also: Have we entered the era of pre-PostWork?

Plus: a grab-bag of futuristic goodness!

Join us:


Steve Jobs and the Art of Reinvention

[I wrote this upon the announcement of Jobs' retirement in August. Jobs reinvented himself, the companies he managed, the personal computer (which he can also get partial credit for inventing in the first place) the music business, and the telephone. To name just a few items.]

At National Review Online, Nick Schulz waxes elegiac about the career of Steve Jobs, describing him as “America’s Greatest Failure” and noting that “Glory is sometimes born of catastrophe.” It may be a distinctly American practice, to write eulogies at the end of a career rather than a life — and here’s hoping that even the career eulogies are premature, that Mr. Jobs finds a path to recovery from his illness and achieves another comeback or three before any real eulogies are written about him.

But as the mantle of Apple Computer CEO passes to new shoulders, it is a good time to reflect on the vivid and indelible mark that Steve Jobs has made on the world of business (and the world in general, for that matter.) Schulz concludes with these thoughts:

There’s a moral here for a Washington culture that fears failure too much. In today’s Washington, large banks aren’t permitted to fail; nor are large auto firms. Next up will be too-big-to-fail hospital systems. Steve Jobs is a reminder that failure is a good and necessary thing. And that sometimes the greatest glories are born of catastrophe.

I don’t entirely disagree with that sentiment, but I think there’s more to be said. Most of the “catastrophes” that Jobs encountered were self-inflicted. And his failures are interesting and instructive precisely because they were followed by subsequent, even more spectacular, successes. Jobs has consistently changed the game by reinventing himself and the companies he managed.

Let’s look at three principles of reinvention reflected in the career of Steve Jobs.

1. First, invent yourself.

Steve Jobs was a hacker, a phone phreaker, and by many accounts something of a hippie in the early days. He was adored, feared, and despised at Apple Computer, the company he co-founded in 1976 with Steve Wozniak. With the Macintosh, he wanted to bring a product to market that was “insanely great” — words that had no small applicability to his own good self. By the time he was fired by former Pepsico CEO John Sculley, the man he personally recruited to run the “business side” of his business, he was larger than life — a man not yet 30 who had already accomplished far more than most of us will ever do.

In a sense, Apple had to let Jobs go because there was just too much of him. He was an overwhelming presence. When he set about to reinvent himself the first time, he had plenty of material to work with.

2. “Stay hungry. Stay foolish.”

Some of you may recognize these words from Stewart Brands’ Whole Earth Catalog, or from Jobs’ quoting them in a famous commencement address he gave at Stanford in 2005. (If you’re not, follow the link and read the address. It will tell you far more about Steve Jobs than I could ever hope to.)

Jobs left Apple, but he stayed hungry. In 1985 he started a new company with as defiant a name as you can imagine: NeXT. It was not the massive large-scale success that Apple was, but its technology was extremely influential — so much so that Apple Computer ultimately came calling and bought Jobs out in order to acquire what would become the basis for a a completely revamped Macintosh operating system. That purchase brought Jobs back in as a consultant to Apple, and soon after as reinstated CEO.

Jobs also stayed foolish. While running NeXT, he bought an interesting little computer graphics outfit from George Lucas, a company that today we all know as PIXAR. Whatever his business reasons for making that purchase, there can be no doubt that a primary part of the attraction was just how cool PIXAR was. It was insanely great, and he was as committed to that ideal as ever. (Of course, we should all suffer from that sort of “foolishness.” Jobs later sold the company to Disney for $7 billion, becoming Disney’s largest shareholder in the process.)

3. Put everything on the line.

Steve Jobs’ reinvention of himself from wunderkind-turned-charlatan/outcast to Triumphant Reconqueror is as inspiring a story as you will find in the annals of American business. But he had only begun to reinvent. We all know about how the iPod led to the iPhone and the iPad — and what tremendous game-changers each of these has been — but it all started with the iMac. Jobs dared to reinvent to the Macintosh itself, making it even more insane and greater than ever.

It’s important to note that the Mac of 1997 was a far cry from the design masterpiece that Jobs introduced in 1984, and was in significant need of reinvention. But that he would stake his company and reclaimed reputation on making a big splash with the very technology that had, in a sense, been his initial undoing…

That took guts.

It takes courage to reinvent yourself. It takes passion. And perhaps it takes a little bit of hunger and little bit of foolishness. Any of us who have experienced failure, or are experiencing it now, should remember that. Steve Jobs has changed our world in many ways, and has shown us that failure need never be the last word. For both of those things, we should be profoundly grateful.

Okay This Seems Big

This video is amazing. Basically what we have here is scientists reverse-engineering visual data out of brain activity as measured in an MRI.

In the comments, there is quite a bit of angst about the government reading our minds via this kind of technology, which of course is a risk, but at least for now this particular bit of government intrusion can be avoided by not having a highly modified MRI conducted by this one group of researchers in Berkeley. So maybe we don’t need to panic quite yet.

But this speaks to another possibility, too.

We talked not that long ago, on our show about human enhancement and augmentation, about how the Cochlear implant suggests the beginnings of an eventual machine-mind interface. The Cochlear implant pumps sound into the brain via electronic signals. On that show, George Dvorsky said the next step would be a device that can send visual signals into the brain, noting that this is a significantly bigger challenge and will take a while to achieve.

Being able to turn brain information into visual information, as demonstrated in this video, seems like a good start. The process needs to be a lot more accurate, of course. The reconstructions will need to be made of something more flexible than “18 million seconds of random Youtube video (as described here.) More importantly, the process needs to be made reversible. If we can convert images in the brain into computer images, eventually we’ll be able to convert computer images into images in the brain. Big challenges, but they all feel like a matter of time — a question of when, not whether.

After vision will come taste and smell…and eventually touch. Every sensation that occurs in our bodies ultimately “happens” in our brains. This is the future of virtual reality interfaces: a computer telling us we’re having a particular experience, or more precisely, a computer writing that experience directly to our brains.

What’s coming is a world in which we can experience anything, truly a world without limits. And that is a simultaneously enticing and frightening thought.