Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

A Third Option

This week’s horrifying events at Virginia Tech have sparked a predictable debate, with gun opponents claiming that incidents such as this occur because of the wide availability of firearms — meaning that there should be more restrictions on these weapons — while gun rights proponents point out that a student or faculty member with a concealed carry permit might have prevented a good deal of yesterday’s carnage.

As with most political debates, virtually everybody goes in already knowing the answer. The events fit neatly into place to justify long-held positions.

The positions boil down to:

Guns are the problem. If we want to prevent tragedies such as this, there need to be fewer guns and fewer people carrying guns. Restrictions on guns are the solution

Guns are the solution. If we want to prevent tragedies such as this, there need to be more guns and more people carrying guns. Restrictions on guns enable these kinds of tragedies.

People arrive at both of these positions through a combination of logic and emotional predisposition. The first position draws on the fact that guns kill people*. So if you have fewer guns, they reason, fewer people will be killed. The second position relies on the proposition that self-defense is crucial to protecting not only one’s safety and property, but ultimately one’s freedom. So if you have a responsible armed populace, they reason, you have a safer populace.

I don’t want to discuss the merits of either of these arguments. There are plenty of blogs that provide an opportunity to do so. Believing, as I do, that the solutions to many problems lie in developing technologies, I’m more interested in exploring whether technology hasn’t provided a third option in the form of non-lethal (or more properly, less-lethal) weapons. Consider this:

The new Advanced Taser M-18 series has almost 100% effectiveness rating. It combines the injury reducing benefits of traditional stun technology with a quantum leap in stopping power via new Electro-Muscular Disruption (EMD) technology. In police studies, the new Advanced Taser has a higher instant incapacitation rate than a 9mm hand gun. The Advanced Taser over-rides the central nervous system, providing more reliable takedown power. The advanced TASER has 15 foot range.

Granted, that’s marketing copy. I’m sure there are significant drawbacks to using a Taser versus using a conventional firearm. But there could also be tremendous advantages in arguing for greater availability and use of such weapons among the general populace. Namely, these weapons are not designed to kill people.

So let’s go back to the firearm advocates’ assessment of yesterday’s tragedy. If there were students or faculty members at various points around campus carrying legal, concealed firearms, might there not have been an opportunity to stop this monster before he killed 32 people? Seems to me there might have been. But if you had an equal (or greater) number of people armed with Tasers, wouldn’t they have had a similar chance of taking the shooter down?

taser.jpg

Opponents of the concealed carry argument argue that students and faculty members would be shooting each other, or that cops would accidentally target an armed good guy rather than the shooter. But that equation changes somewhat if the good guys (including the cops) are all carrying less-lethal weapons.

Dr. Helen quotes Jeff Cooper on the psychology of self-defense:

I forget when I first dreamed up the color code, but it was a long time ago. I have been teaching it and preaching it, practically forever, but I never seem to have got it across! The color code is not a means of assessing danger or formulating a tactical solution. It is rather a psychological means of overcoming your innate reluctance to shoot a man down. Normal people have a natural and healthy mental block against delivering the irrevocable blow. This is good, but in a gunfight it may well get you killed.

If the blow is likely not to be irrevocable, is there a chance that a Taser-armed populace might even be more proactive and able to defend itself than one armed with conventional firearms? The downside, of course, is that people might be more likely to Taser others in non-life-threatening situations. Individuals with a concealed carry permit for a less-lethal weapon would have to be highly trained, just as I assume are those who carry permits for conventional firearms. And there would need to be severe penalties for frivolous or irresponsible uses of such weapons.

I’m not saying that it would be politically easy to implement a scheme whereby people could legally conceal Tasers or similar weapons. Gun opponents probably wouldn’t be wild on the idea — seeing as they aren’t big on the arguments in favor of self-defense — and gun proponents would probably look askance on any such proposal as the start of some kind of slippery slope. But both camps would get a large share of what they want out of such a compromise. Gun proponents would see more people armed and defending themselves; opponents would not see an increase in the incidence or likelihood of people being killed by firearms. (In fact, those numbers might go down.)

Plus, it’s a measure that need not be tied — in fact, in order to work, it absolutely must not be tied — to efforts either to restrict or allow greater access to conventional firearms. Perhaps it could be a point of truce between the two camps.

As less-lethal weapon technology continues to develop, I think this third option will bear greater exploring.

UPDATE: Instalanche! Thanks, Glenn.

* Yeah, I know. Guns don’t kill people; people kill people. Well, let’s just say that people with guns do it more efficiently than, say, people with Hula Hoops. Can we agree on that?

The Fat Kid Paradox

The thinnest kids eat the most; the fattest eat the least. It would appear that exercise is key. So, hey, make sure your kids are getting some exercise. The world used to provide lots of opportunities for kids to be active; these days that hour per day of rigorous activity which is recommended might be hard to pull off.

Randall also comments on the exercise-unfriendliness of the adult world:

We need easier ways to mix exercise into our work schedules. I will repeat what I most want to see: Businesses should add exercise bicycles and stair stepper machines to meeting rooms. Then people called into status meetings, design meetings, and training classes could get exercise while doing meetings.

Working from home from time to time, I find that it’s a lot easier to stand up and move around during conference calls than it would be at the office. Plus, I’m able to dash off downstairs for a half-hour workout. It’s one of the big advantages of working from home, really.

Closer Than We Think

Ben Goertzel says the Singularity may get here sooner than many of us expect:

One of these years, one of these AGI designs—quite possibly my own Novamente system—is going to pass the critical threshold and recognize the pattern of its own self, an event that will be closely followed by the system developing its own sense of will and reflective awareness. And then, if we’ve done things right and supplied the AGI with an appropriate goal system and a respect for its human parents, we will be in the midst of the event that human society has been pushing toward, in hindsight, since the beginning: a positive Singularity. The message I’d like to leave you with is: If appropriate effort is applied to appropriate AGI designs, now and in the near future, then a positive Singularity could be here sooner than you think.

Goertzel says that with a Manhattan Project approach, we could be there in a decade or so, but that it will most likely take a little longer being driven by a few serious researchers trying “really, really” hard to make it happen. Like Kurzweil, Goertzel believes that better understanding of the human brain will lead us there, but he’s not convinced that we need a full brain scan or significantly more powerful hardware.

This is a good overview for folks who haven’t read much about AGI (artificial general intelligence.) There are some interesting thoughts in the comments as well. Read the whole thing.

Shift Happens

Here’s an interesting video. It starts out with some potentially startling demographic statistics, and then ventures into some fairly familiar Speculist territory.

By the time we get to the end, the “shocking” demographic facts seem to have stopped mattering altogether. About midway through, we see a reminder of how quickly and thoroughly national prestige and influence can change on the world stage. But I don’t think either of the nations mentioned near the beginning of the video will become the new dominant powers. At least not for long. They will almost certainly be eclipsed by something like the rapidly growing “country” which is mentioned later.

And then entities like that will be eclipsed by something else altogether.

It's a New Phil, Week 65

Down three pounds this week to 225 for a total weight loss of 72 pounds!!! Another landmark, yesterday I did a total of three hundred repetitions of each of the exercises in my standard sledgehammer workout. I’m hoping to be at 500 by the end of the year, with a stretch goal of being able to do 500 in 2.5 hours with an 18-pound sledge (currently still using the 10-pounder.)

And with the weather turning warmer today, I might even make it out on the bike this weekend.

It’s a New Phil, Week 65

Down three pounds this week to 225 for a total weight loss of 72 pounds!!! Another landmark, yesterday I did a total of three hundred repetitions of each of the exercises in my standard sledgehammer workout. I’m hoping to be at 500 by the end of the year, with a stretch goal of being able to do 500 in 2.5 hours with an 18-pound sledge (currently still using the 10-pounder.)

And with the weather turning warmer today, I might even make it out on the bike this weekend.

Friday Recipes

Lots of blogs do a cooking feature on Friday, so I think it’s high time we started. Please let me know which of the following Speculicious dishes you would be interested in reading about, or feel free to suggest one of your own:

T-Rex and Dumplings

Diplodocus a la King

Sweet and Sour Triceratops

Compsognathus Noodle Soup (with matzo-ball variation)

Mesquite-grilled Allosaurus

Stegosaurus-fried Steak

Stegosaurus-fried Stegosaurus

Man, I’m getting hungry just thinking about that last one.

Instant Climate Gratification

While the debate continues about whether the sun might have something to do with the temperature of the planet (not to mention how blasted bright it gets on my back patio on summer afternoons), some scientists are arguing that — irrespective of our nearest star’s role in causing global warming — dealing directly with it is the most straightforward way to fight global warming.

Wood advanced several ideas to “fix” the earth’s climate, including building up Arctic sea ice to make it function like a planetary air conditioner to “suck heat in from the ­mid­latitude heat bath.” A “surprisingly practical” way of achieving this, he said, would be to use large artillery pieces to shoot as much as a million tons of highly reflective sulfate aerosols or ­specially ­engineered nanoparticles into the Arctic stratosphere to deflect the sun’s rays. Delivering up to a million tons of material via artillery would require a constant ­bombardment—­basically declaring war on the strato­sphere. Alternatively, a fleet of B-747 “crop dusters” could deliver the particles by flying continuously around the Arctic Circle. Or a 25-kilometer-­long sky hose could be tethered to a military superblimp high above the planet’s surface to pump reflective particles into the ­atmosphere.

Far-fetched as Wood’s ideas may sound, his weren’t the only Rube Goldberg proposals aired at the meeting. Even as they joked about a NASA staffer’s apology for her inability to control the temperature in the meeting room, others detailed their own schemes for manipulating earth’s climate. Astronomer J. Roger Angel suggested placing a huge fleet of mirrors in orbit to divert incoming solar radiation, at a cost of “only” several trillion dollars. Atmospheric scientist John Latham and engineer Stephen Salter hawked their idea of making marine clouds thicker and more reflective by whipping ocean water into a froth with giant pumps and eggbeaters. Most frightening was the science-fiction writer and astrophysicist Gregory Benford’s announcement that he wanted to “cut through red tape and demonstrate what could be done” by finding private sponsors for his plan to inject diatomaceous ­earth—­the ­chalk­like substance used in filtration systems and cat ­litter—­into the Arctic stratosphere. He, like his fellow geoengineers, was largely silent on the possible unintended consequences of his plan.

Check it out. If nothing else, these are some highly imaginative ideas and very entertaining reading.

But I’m afraid Stephen might lose some of the mad scientist cred he garnered with his Carbon Sequestration proposal. That idea was just a little too ho-hum, I’m afraid.

Via GeekPress.

Anniversary

It was 46 years ago today that Yuri Gagarin did what no human being had ever done before. This is also the 26th anniversary of the first space shuttle launch. Rand Simberg had some thoughts around this time last year that bear repeating:

Perhaps, 45 years after a race initiated by a socialist-state space program, and 25 years after a failed attempt at our own socialist program, it’s time for NASA to support even more vigorously the new space era. The space program should be based on the American values of free enterprise and individualism, not on NASA’s failed 5, 10, and 25 year plans.

yuricolumbia.jpg

The Russians have, to some extent, re-engineered their space program to a private sector concern. But this is where the US should really be the leaders. Maybe the best thing NASA could do at this point is just sort of step out of the way.

Might Be a Factor

Turns out the Sun might have something to do with Global warming after all:

A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.
Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star’s activity in the past.

They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth’s climate became steadily warmer.

Hmmm…this might explain why it isn’t just Earth that’s warming up.

Still, let’s not get carried away about how much effect the sun might have on our planet’s climate. The BBC is almost laughably cautious in this regard. I especially like this one:

The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.

Astounding — who would have guessed such a bizarre link might be possible? Then there’s this concluding gem:

This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun’s latest attempt to warm the Earth.

Well there it is. However indirect and ephemeral the connection may be, I think we’re going to have to allow that the sun has something to do with how warm our planet it is. Truth is stranger than fiction, isn’t it?