Self-Driving Cars

By | January 29, 2006
3 Comments

Per Ray Kurzweil, it’s a question of when, not whether. And probably sooner rather than later:

A U.K. government think tank has forecast RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056.

“Given the ability of several cars to navigate a complex route in the recent DARPA competition completely autonomously and a General Motors project to demonstrate driverless cars traveling at 60 miles per hour by 2008, the projection of RFID-controlled cars by the year 2056 is a good example of linear thinking,” says Ray Kurzweil. “I believe we can anticipate cars to be doing much of our driving for us in the 2020s if not sooner.”

No word on flying cars. Personally, I think anybody who says we won’t have them by 2010 is engaged in linear thinking. But then, I’m no Kurzweil.

UPDATE FROM STEPHEN: “Beyond Tomorrow” had a segment recently about an anti-collision radar system for passenger cars. Such a system could really cut down on distracted driver-type accidents. It also looked to be ready to market in Europe.

The Mercedes test vehicle has long range and short range radar systems that surround the car. The car is programmed to stop rather than rearend somebody if the driver is distracted.

There are a couple of practical reasons why we’ll have driver assist systems for awhile before we’ll see complete automation. First, these initial driver assist systems won’t have to be anywhere near as sophisticated as those systems that competed in the DARPA Grand Challenge.

Second, there’s the issue of products liability. This Mercedes is equipped with a “driver assist” system, not full automation. It’s a little like a driver’s ed car. There’s a safety brake, but you are still the driver in command. If you have an accident, then (arguably) you couldn’t blame the manufacturer unless a system malfunction directly caused the accident.

But if the car is doing it’s own driving, then obviously the car manufacturer would have a difficult time avoiding responsibility in the event of an accident.

So, we’ll see a slow march toward full automation via various “driver assist” systems. At first it will be simple collision avoidance by braking, then collision avoidance by steering out of the way of a crash.

Eventually these systems will take on all the tasks associated with driving. Then you’ll just give it a destination and sit back and enjoy the ride.

UPDATE AGAIN: Well, that didn’t take long. Apparently Honda UK is offering a driver’s assist sytem that amounts to a full freeway autopilot.

I’ll be taking a wait-and-see approach.

H/T to eisendorn.

  • Jake

    The features you mentioned are in the new Mercedes S car to be released next month in the US.

    Here is a review from Automobile magazine:

    “The most exciting is Brake Assist Plus (BAS+). Instead of trying to figure out if you’re initiating a panic stop just by judging how hard and fast you jam your foot down on the pedal (that’s regular old Brake Assist, which you get if you don’t order Distronic Plus active cruise control), BAS+ uses short- and long-range radar to determine how far you are from the traffic in front of you and what your closing speed is. If the system can tell that you’re closing in on forward traffic too quickly, or that the guy in front of you just nailed the binders, it will increase the brake force (only after you’ve started braking) with the necessary gusto to avoid a collision. We know what you’re thinking: I have eyes and a right foot; I don’t need some system to help me. Mercedes testing shows that almost nobody reacts as quickly as BAS+, though.

    Another new technology that combines safety with comfort is the new Distronic Plus radar-guided cruise control system. Like the original Distronic system, it can vary your speed on the highway to maintain a safe following distance. Also like the original system, it’s far too conservative for urban U.S. conditions, so if you leave the system to its own devices (even set to follow as closely as possible), a steady stream of cars will file into the too-large space in front of you. The new Plus system adds the ability to brake the car to a halt and inch along in stop-and-go traffic. While we haven’t tried this out yet, we fear the system will once again lack the cutthroat maneuvering tactics of our fellow countrymen and leave users accelerating too little, too late to maintain the required two-micron following distance necessary to avoid getting cut off. Distronic Plus’s low-speed operation is made possible by the same short-range radar used in the Brake Assist Plus system”

  • https://www.blog.speculist.com Stephen Gordon

    Jake:

    Thanks for that update.

    I’m not surprised that the complaint of this reviewer is that the system is too conservative.

    I think these systems will tend to be adjusted that way especially at first. When the engineers get more confident they will allow sportier assistance.

  • eisendorn

    also, take a look at honda’s new accord model in the uk. it actually features self-driving capabilities (i.e. it not only controls brakes to regulate distance, but can also steer around), but requires you to touch the steering wheel every 10 secs. most interestingly, the article says every honda model will feature this system by 2016. while this doesn’t mean there is no room for enhancement until then, i am somewhat sceptical about ray’s 2020 prediction.