What is the future? It should be an easy question to answer.
One way to look at it is to say that the future is a point in time which we have not yet reached. This assumes a linear, forward progression through time. Since we all pretty much experience a linear, forward progression through time – those of us who aren’t drugged or mentally ill, that is – such a progression seems an okay thing to assume. Today and yesterday are not the future, tomorrow and the day after are. Of course, it’s all relative. Today isn’t “the future,” but later today is. And at some point, the day after tomorrow will be the day before yesterday – and thus no longer the future.
So the future has this mirage quality. We are always in the same relationship to it. It recedes from us one instant at a time. The future is never any closer and never any farther away. Tomorrow, as Little Orphan Annie reminds us, is only (and always) a day away. This definition of the future works, but it doesn’t tell us much.
Let’s try a different definition. Rather than looking at the when of the future, we look at the what. The future is everything that hasn’t happened yet. So we had this future in which the Democrats would take control of the House in the 2006 elections. And here we are today. Unlike “tomorrow,†a content-defined future either arrives or it doesn’t. The “Democrats take the House†future arrived; the “Republicans retain the House†future did not.
Content-defined futures don’t have that mirage quality. Thanks to probability, they get closer or farther away as we approach them. Three weeks ago, the “Broncos win the AFC West†future was farther away in time than it is now, but much closer in probability. At the time, they were tied for first place in the division. Now they’re three games back, with most of the season already spent. I don’t think that, as of this date, their winning the division has been absolutely eliminated in the mathematical sense, but it’s so unlikely now that it has been virtually counted out. Now we’re looking at the “Broncos get the Wild Card†future, which still has a fair shot of coming into being.
However, there is more at work here than simply probability. Take a look at this possible future:
I would say that the Broncos have a (slightly) better chance of winning the division this year than that asteroid has of hitting us. But I take the chances of the latter happening seriously, while disregarding the former. Why? The asteroid is less likely to hit us, and even if it does it’s a long time from now – whereas the AFC West divisional championship will be decided within a few weeks, most likely next Sunday when Denver plays San Diego.
The answer is so obvious that it hardly bears stating. Superfans notwithstanding, who goes to the NFL playoffs this year doesn’t matter. Careers may be affected, money may be won or lost, some people will be happy and others sad, but it’s pretty much a wash. Whether a monster asteroid hits the planet, however, does matter to everyone. It’s one of those existential risks we hear about.
So let’s put our definitions together and see what we have so far. The future is…
A point in time beyond where we are right now
By which certain things will or will not have happened
Some of those things being far more significant than others
Adding significance to the mix complicates things, but there’s really no getting around it. Which of my rose bushes will come into bloom first next spring? It’s a wide-open question, hinting at numerous possible futures. But I don’t care. I’ll start to be interested only if none of them do, or if one seems to be taking a particularly long time. There are many, many more insignificant (or seemingly insignificant) outcomes yet to be realized than there are significant ones. I’m considerably more interested in whether the Broncos make it the playoffs than I am in which rose bush blooms first, and even more interested than that (by a much wider margin) in whether the asteroid is going to hit Earth.
When we talk about the future, generally what we’re talking about is the realization of significant outcomes which are currently unresolved.
The mountain itself is a set of random outcomes; this caption is a set of intentional ones. Welcome to the future.