Author Archives: Phil Bowermaster

Friday Videos — It’s Hot

An anonymous reader (who happens to work for Microsoft) sends us this, with this comment:

“They finally got it right.”

Come to think of it, I haven’t heard word one about MIDI support on the iPhone…

FastForward Radio — The Technological Singularity

The World Transformed, Part 9

What is the Singularity?
Is it the biggest transformation of all or wishful thinking on the part
of nerds looking to have their very own “geek rapture?”

Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon welcome futurist and
entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil to discuss how accelerating technological
change will soon alter our world beyond recognition…and why that’s a
good thing!

WorldTransformed4.jpg

Archived recording available here:

Listen to FastForward Radio... on Blog Talk Radio


About our guest:

Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by the Wall Street Journal, and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes magazine. Inc.
magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States,
calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison.” He is a man who wears
many hats — businessman, inventor, artist, visionary, and bestselling
author. With his book The Singularity Is Near he has probably done more
than anyone else to alert the the public as to the amazing period of
transformation in which we now live.
ray-kurzweil.jpg

Friday Videos — Funny and Creepy

Harvey provides us with an interesting pair of clips this week, both of which have something to say about our transhuman future.

Maybe it’s a generational thing, maybe its a guy thing. But as far as I’m concerned, this is flat-out funny:

Post-singularity, I still want to think that’s funny. I hope I never get so sophisticated that I don’t get a kick out of it.

Yes, it’s the most basic and obvious slapstick, but there’s something to be said for going that far over the top. Plus I love the little bits of surrealism: Larry in a suit of armor, Curly hitting himself in the face with a pie, the boring guy who wont let a double pie-slap slow him down in relating his boring tale.

Anyhow, I think we have nothing to fear from our robot overlords if they find that amusing. (Of course, we have plenty to fear if they decide to start throwing pies at us. Remember, they think a million times faster than we do.)

Then there’s this:

Sweet mother of mercy. Has everything ever seemed farther from being all right than it does right now?

Therapy Buddy is a cautionary tale. The guy who made it is obviously a nice person and he clearly has the best of intentions. And the message is a pretty good one. Not perfect. For example, when your pitch is dying, maybe you want to come back with reasons that your invention is a good one, rather than just reassuring yourself that everything is going to be all right.

Anyhow, let that be a lesson to us. If such a low-tech object can distract us with reassurance when we need to be actively pursuing our best interests — or worse yet, can be so profoundly creepy when designed to do a good thing — well, such possibilities are only magnified when we enter the realm of artificial intelligence and robotics. We must be very careful

FastForward Radio — The Coming Era of Abundance

The World Transformed, Part 8

What would life be like in a world without poverty? How about a world in
which everyone is, essentially, rich? The answer may be just around the corner.

comingeraofabundance.jpg


Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon welcome a panel of futurists to discuss
how the end of scarcity will revolutionize society, the economy, and life
as we know it.

WorldTransformed4.jpg

Archived recording available here:

Listen to FastForward Radio... on Blog Talk Radio


About our guests:

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Paul Fernhout writes essays about future-oriented themes (including Post-Scarcity Princeton and The Lion and the Butterfly), does free and open source software development, and shares homeschooling duties with his wife, Cynthia Kurtz. paulimage.jpg
Joseph Jackson is a philosopher
and social entrepreneur. A graduate of Harvard College AB (Government
2004) and the London School of Economics Msc (Philosophy of Science 2005),
he leads the Network for Open Scientific Innovation, a 501(c)3 organization
seeking to promote the emergence of Open Source models in the life sciences.

src="https://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/Joseph.jpeg"height="75" width="75">

Sally Morem writes essays on science,
science fiction, political philosophy, and the future of technology, including
The
Problems with Linear Projections of the Future,
Yes,
the World is Round
, Nanotechnology
Explained
, and The
Magic Universe of George Lucas
.
sallyphoto.jpg

Post-Politics, Post-Scarcity, and Growth Solutions for Health Care

The debate between transhumanist socialists and libertarians continues, with Jamais Cascio weighing in on those who take an apolitical or anti-political stance:

You have my express permission to kick the next person — especially someone advocating the embrace of radical forms of technological advancement — who tells you that they wish nothing more than to get rid of, move beyond, or otherwise avoid “politics.” Kick them hard, and repeatedly. They have adopted a profoundly ignorant and self-serving position, one that betrays at best a lack of understanding of human nature and society, and at worst a malicious desire to preemptively shut down any opposition to their goals.

I consistently try, whenever the subject of politics comes up, to move the conversation elsewhere. Moreover, in the spirit of full disclosure, I must admit that I have often pined for a post-political world. Seeing as I don’t think I have a malicious desire to shut down any opposition to my goals, I am left to conclude that the severe kicking I have coming stems from being profoundly ignorant and not understanding society.

Politics is good, Jamais explains:

Politics is part of a healthy society — it’s what happens when you have a group of people with differential goals and a persistent relationship. It’s not about partisanship, it’s about power. And while even small groups have politics (think: supporting or opposing decisions, differing levels of power to achieve goals, deciding how to use limited resources), the more people involved, the more complex the politics. Factions, parties, ideologies and the like are simply ways of organizing politics in a complex social space — they’re symptoms of politics, not causes.

Well, hang on, there. I’m really okay with all of that. What I find imminently avoidable is not that set of relationships or even the various processes we put in place to manage those relationships. It’s the prevalent discourse surrounding those processes. Political discourse tends towards hysteria and mean-spiritedness, neither of which I have any use for.

Moreover, most of it is pointless. As Michael Anissimov puts it:

I have substantial political knowledge, and frequently follow politics, but I speak about my (socially liberal, economically moderate) political views much more frequently offline than online. Why? Because politics is a huge niche occupied by millions of people. Anyone can do it. Pick a side and start shouting slogans.

Right. And once the slogan-shouting begins, you can pretty much forget about any serious discussions on any other topics. Although you could probably get some good religious shouting matches going, too, if you wanted to add some variety.

Contra Jamais, I doubt many of those who eschew “politics” are seeking utter isolation or looking for a world in which the only viewpoint is theirs. Again, it is the increasingly absolutist nature of current political discourse that I personally find offputting. Why must the “persistent relationship” between parties with differential goals be a toxic one? Why must virtually all communication between the different parties be hostile denunciations and condemnation?

Jamais makes a good point that technology and politics are not alternatives to each other. But whereas the former seems to open up endless possibilities, the latter (or rather the prevalent discourse surrounding the latter) works to reduce everything to a binary choice between that which belongs to the Good People and that which is of the Other.

In the comment thread to the post linked above, Jamais writes:

Every politician makes noises about wanting to end politics as usual, and very very few of them ever actually try to do anything about it.

As things are set up now, to try to do so is political suicide. Just as technophiles need a greater appreciation of the value (and inevitability) of politics, politicians need more choices — a better appreciation of technology might open some up for them.

For example, as the current health care debate rages, I keep wondering why little (if any) time is spent discussing disruptive changes that could massively increase the amount of health care available while massively decreasing the costs of care. Clayton Christensen of the Harvard Business School argues that retail clinics are precisely one such disruptive innovation:

Retail clinics are basic health clinics staffed by nurses and located inside pharmacies and stores such as Wal-Mart, CVS and Walgreens. There are about 1,000 such sites in 37 states, according to a September 2008 article in the journal Health Affairs. Nurses deliver routine medical care for common ailments like a sore throat or ear infection. A typical visit costs one-third less than an urgent care clinic visit and three-quarters less than a visit to an emergency department, according to another article in Health Affairs that analyzed the costs to the insurance carrier.

Ninety percent of retail clinic visits are for 10 common complaints that constitute 18% of all visits to primary care doctors and 12% of visits to emergency rooms.

Retail clinics are a good start, but they’re just a start.

The ailments treated at retail clinics all have a simple and unambiguous treatment strategy. If the answer to a particular medical problem is known and will not vary from doctor to doctor, then the best possible strategy — if we want to maximize both the total amount of care and available and the quality of that care — is to get doctors out of the loop on those problems. This frees doctors to spend time on issues where decisions really need to be made.

I liken the treatment of these defined problems to a solved games such as checkers and tic-tac-toe. Just as a human being can’t beat a computer which has been programmed with complete knowledge of these games, a doctor can’t add value to the treatment of one of these (highly limited and very well defined) problems. The challenge is to greatly increase the number of “solved” medical problems, and the way to do that is through automation. Increasingly sophisticated computer technology can guide technicians (or even patients) through tests to reveal the appropriate course of treatment for increasingly complex problems.

I would guess that fewer than 20% of the problems that doctors routinely encounter account for 80% (or more) of the time they spend with patients, and that many of these would be good candidates for automating. Offloading 80% of the tasks doctors currently perform would be the equivalent of having five times as many doctors on hand to apply their expertise to the treatment and prevention of illness. The total amount of medical care available would increase geometrically. And, since the vast majority of this care would be automated, the total cost of care would plummet.

Essentially, we’re talking about applying Moore’s Law to medical care. Increase the amount of care available by an order of magnitude or two, decrease the cost by the same margins, and what is the right model for providing universal health care?

I don’t know.

The problem is, neither does anybody else. And our leaders, far from considering these possibilities, have entrenched positions that assume scarcity as a permanent feature of the world, rather than a problem that we should only have to deal with for a few more decades. Unfortunately, how long we will have to wait until we reach an era of virtually unlimited medical care is pretty much in their hands. The longer it takes them to see the possibilities, the longer they will continue to waste all of our time with politics as usual.

How About "Demes?"

Susan Blackmore says that evolution has a third kind of replicator, following on the heels of genes and memes, and that this new replicator needs a name. Blackmore is one of the big names in memetics, having written one of the most elaborate and well though-out books on the subject.

In her recent essay in New Scientist, she reviews how the first replicator, genes, enabled the incredible wealth of biodiversity that our planet enjoys. This was followed by the second replicator, memes, which — coupled with the first — enabled the evolution of human intelligence (which she claims is not only greater than, but of a different kind from any other variety of intelligence) as well as the emergence of human civilization. Now she believes a third replicator has emerged:

Memes are a new kind of information – behaviours rather than DNA – copied by a new kind of machinery – brains rather than chemicals inside cells. This is a new evolutionary process because all of the three critical stages – copying, varying and selection – are done by those brains. So does the same apply to new technology?

There is a new kind of information: electronically processed binary information rather than memes. There is also a new kind of copying machinery: computers and servers rather than brains.

Just as genes took over the process of evolution and memes have been the driving force behind human civilization, Blackmore asserts that these new digital replicators are driving the emergence of something entirely new. For now, humanity and this new entity exist in a symbiotic relationship, but that may not always be the case:

Billions of years ago, free-living bacteria are thought to have become incorporated into living cells as energy-providing mitochondria. Both sides benefited from the deal. Perhaps the same is happening to us now. The growing web of machines we let loose needs us to run the power stations, build the factories that make the computers, and repair things when they go wrong – and will do for some time yet. In return we get entertainment, tedious tasks done for us, facts at the click of a mouse and as much communication as we can ask for. It’s a deal we are not likely to turn down.

Yet this shift to a new replicator may be a dangerous tipping point. Our ancestors could have killed themselves off with their large brains and dangerous memes, but they pulled through. This time the danger is to the whole planet. Gadgets like phones and PCs are already using 15 per cent of household power and rising; the web is using over 5 per cent of the world’s entire power and rising. We blame ourselves for climate change and resource depletion, but perhaps we should blame this new evolutionary process that is greedy, selfish and utterly blind to the consequences of its own expansion. We at least have the advantage that we can understand what is happening. That must be the first step towards working out what, if anything, to do about it.

I take encouragement from the fact that, all these billions of years later, we are still carrying mitochondria around with us. This suggests to me that such a symbiotic relationship can be long-term or even permanent. One might ask whether eventually the digital technology and its new kind of replicator — “demes,” perhaps? — will be subsumed into something called “humanity” or whether humanity eventually becomes a small working piece of something much larger.

Recognizing that the word “humanity” can be used in more than one sense, maybe both will be true.

How About “Demes?”

Susan Blackmore says that evolution has a third kind of replicator, following on the heels of genes and memes, and that this new replicator needs a name. Blackmore is one of the big names in memetics, having written one of the most elaborate and well though-out books on the subject.

In her recent essay in New Scientist, she reviews how the first replicator, genes, enabled the incredible wealth of biodiversity that our planet enjoys. This was followed by the second replicator, memes, which — coupled with the first — enabled the evolution of human intelligence (which she claims is not only greater than, but of a different kind from any other variety of intelligence) as well as the emergence of human civilization. Now she believes a third replicator has emerged:

Memes are a new kind of information – behaviours rather than DNA – copied by a new kind of machinery – brains rather than chemicals inside cells. This is a new evolutionary process because all of the three critical stages – copying, varying and selection – are done by those brains. So does the same apply to new technology?

There is a new kind of information: electronically processed binary information rather than memes. There is also a new kind of copying machinery: computers and servers rather than brains.

Just as genes took over the process of evolution and memes have been the driving force behind human civilization, Blackmore asserts that these new digital replicators are driving the emergence of something entirely new. For now, humanity and this new entity exist in a symbiotic relationship, but that may not always be the case:

Billions of years ago, free-living bacteria are thought to have become incorporated into living cells as energy-providing mitochondria. Both sides benefited from the deal. Perhaps the same is happening to us now. The growing web of machines we let loose needs us to run the power stations, build the factories that make the computers, and repair things when they go wrong – and will do for some time yet. In return we get entertainment, tedious tasks done for us, facts at the click of a mouse and as much communication as we can ask for. It’s a deal we are not likely to turn down.

Yet this shift to a new replicator may be a dangerous tipping point. Our ancestors could have killed themselves off with their large brains and dangerous memes, but they pulled through. This time the danger is to the whole planet. Gadgets like phones and PCs are already using 15 per cent of household power and rising; the web is using over 5 per cent of the world’s entire power and rising. We blame ourselves for climate change and resource depletion, but perhaps we should blame this new evolutionary process that is greedy, selfish and utterly blind to the consequences of its own expansion. We at least have the advantage that we can understand what is happening. That must be the first step towards working out what, if anything, to do about it.

I take encouragement from the fact that, all these billions of years later, we are still carrying mitochondria around with us. This suggests to me that such a symbiotic relationship can be long-term or even permanent. One might ask whether eventually the digital technology and its new kind of replicator — “demes,” perhaps? — will be subsumed into something called “humanity” or whether humanity eventually becomes a small working piece of something much larger.

Recognizing that the word “humanity” can be used in more than one sense, maybe both will be true.

Fastforward Radio — Virtual Worlds and the Future of Personality

The World Transformed, Part 7

Are we living in the Matrix? Can we be sure? And even if we’re
not, are there reasons why we might want to live there?

VirtualWorld.jpg

Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon welcome a distinguished panel to
discuss our future in virtual worlds, our future virtual selves, and
Nick Bostrom’s href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_hypothesis">Simulation
Hypothesis, which argues that we are already probably living in a
computer simulation.

alt="WorldTransformed4.jpg"
src="https://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/WorldTransformed4.jpg"
border="0" height="300" width="300">

Archived recording available here:

Listen to FastForward Radio... on Blog Talk Radio


About our guests:

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Dr. Bruce Katz is a
leading thinker and researcher in the field of artificial intelligence.
He is the Chief AI
Scientist at ColdLight
Solutions
and the author of href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1934015180?ie=UTF8&tag=thespeculist-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=1789&creativeASIN=1934015180">Neuroengineering
the Future: Virtual Minds and the Creation of Immortality.
drbrucekatz.JPG src="https://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/drbrucekatz.JPG"
height="100" width="70">
Michael Anissimov is a
science/technology writer and consultant. He is the creative force
behind one of the leading futurist blogs, href="http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/">Accelerating
Future. He is a co-founder of the Immortality
Institute
, the Media Director for the href="http://singinst.org/">Singularity Institute for Artificial
Intelligence, and the Fundraising Director for North America for
the Lifeboat Foundation.

style="width: 70px; height: 101px;" alt="michael.anissimov.jpg"
src="https://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/michael.anissimov.jpg">
Greg Campbell is an Intel
alumnus and veteran of several Internet startups. He is an information
technology consultant, virtual worlds researcher, and contributing
editor to h+ Magazine, where he writes under the name Surfdaddy Orca.
Recent articles related to the show’s topic include href="http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/ai/brain-chip">Brain on a
Chip and href="http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/ai/games-design-themselves">Games
that Design Themselves.
surfdaddy.JPG src="https://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/surfdaddy.JPG" height="100"
width="100">

Alex In Charge

Big news in an e-mail from James Hughes:

Alex Lightman Appointed Executive Director of Humanity+

Los Angeles, August 3, 2009 – The Board of Directors of Humanity+ is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Alex Lightman as its new Executive Director.

“Mr. Lightman brings to the job significant experience in the technology world and H+ is thrilled that he is taking the reins to help grow our organization,” said Dr. James Hughes, Secretary, Humanity+.

We last caught up with Alex at the Singularity Summit in September 2007:

My quick synopsis:

You might find Alex to be outspoken, perhaps even outrageous. But you certainly never have to worry that he’s holding back on you. His views are unique and though-provoking.

Congratulations to Alex. Here’s looking forward to some very exciting developments from Humanity + in the near future!

The Tale of the Blog Comment

Chapter 1: Peter Thiel writes a libertarian escape mini-manifesto over at Cato Unbound.

Chapter 2: Mike Treder responds at IEET, with a vigorous critique of Thiel’s views.

Chapter 3: Michael Anissimov observes that Thiel and the Singularity Institute were mentioned in an entry over at ReadWriteWeb. He notes the recent dust-up over Thiel’s essay and asserts that the Singularity Institute is a non-political group, supported and staffed by people of a wide variety of political affiliations. He also makes the case that coming technological developments may render current political thinking less than relevant.

Chapter 4: Mike Treder leaves the following comment at Michael’s blog:

“The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in times of great moral crises maintain their neutrality.” – Dante Alighieri

Professing neutrality when faced with the moral repugnance of views like Peter Thiel’s is a sure ticket to a warmer climate.

Chapter 5: So this is where I come in. What follows is an annotated version of the comment I wrote in response to Mike’s comment.

Professing neutrality when faced with the moral repugnance of views like Peter Thiel’s is a sure ticket to a warmer climate.

Sheesh, if I wanted to see people get condemned to a lake of fire for all eternity for honestly trying to work out their position on complex issues, I wouldn’t typically come to this site. Maybe I’d go back to the Southern Baptist church camp in Alabama that I attended as a teenager.

But, no, come to think of, that’s not fair. The Baptists were never that judgmental.

One area where transhumanists consistently disappointment me is politics. We can talk about accelerating change and singularities and human enhancement and the possibilities are endless, but when the subject comes to politics, everyone seems to revert to one of a very small number of philosophical templates, most of them created in the 19th century or earlier. And for some reason those are inviolate.

But that’s not to say that technology has played no role in the recent evolution of political discourse. The rise of the blogosphere and sites like Daily Kos and Free Republic have established a new “accelerated” rhetorical framework for politics which now seems to be more or less universally applied. The basic assumption behind the framework is that there is Our Group and then there is the Other. Any ideas from the Other are subjected to a three-step analysis and response:

1. Hysteria / overreaction

2. Vilification

3. Condemnation

(See Kingraven, above.)

Okay, that bears some explaining. In an earlier comment, an Accelerating Future reader named Kingraven wrote:

It’s so unfortunate that an anti-immigrant, anti-welfare, anti-feminist, racist and oxymoronically gay billionaire is the sole source of funding for the SingInst.

I think the only one of those characterizations that unambiguously applies is “anti-welfare.” Thiel would likely argue the rest of those points. (I know that I would take exception to being labeled as “oxymoronically” heterosexual.) Anyway, Kingraven exemplifies point 2, above, perfectly. It is not enough to disagree with someone’s politics. The Other must be slimed with every label we can plausibly (or not) throw at him.

Okay, back to my comment:

This process has worked great for the political blogs in drawing in huge masses of eager readers, mostly the same people who think they’re up to date on current events because they watch The Colbert Report or listen to Rush Limbaugh.

Personally, I’d like to see a group such as IEET take a different approach. Maybe they could look for some kind of, oh I don’t know, Middle Way that transcends opposites? Or maybe that’s too ambitious. To use Brian’s analogy, maybe they could at least come up with a middle way that transcends Pepsi and Coke? Frankly, I would expect that sort of thing to be more in line with their world view than all this (both figurative and now literal) fire and brimstone talk.

Okay, another point of explanation: in an earlier comment, Brian Wang described the broad spectrum of political choice offered in the US as analogous to choosing between Coke and Pepsi.

As for calling on my IEET friends to be better Buddhists, that’s probably out of line. For one thing, I’m guessing they aren’t all Buddhists, and I have no idea (or concern about) what Mike Treder’s personal religious leanings or lack thereof might be. Plus I don’t know whether that idea about “transcending all pairs of opposites” is typically even applied to moral issues.

I can say that I would personally reject such a view of the world. I believe there’s a real good and a real evil and that the divide between the two can’t be transcended. So this is a potential point of agreement for Mike Treder, Kingraven, the folks who run the Baptist camp in Alabama, and yours truly. We just disagree on the particulars.

Yes, there is real evil in the world.

No, Peter Thiel is not it. (Nor is Michael Anissimov.)

More from my comment:

Forgive my reductionism, but there will always be tension between those who believe that the good of the individual is primary and that the good of the group must be subordinated to it, and those who believe that the good of the group is primary and that the good of the individual must be subordinated to it. A working system (as opposed to a lofty set of ideological propositions) will inevitably consist of a series of trade-offs between those two. Technology has the potential to ease the impact of some of these trade-offs, and even replace them with new trade-offs, but the tension will never completely go away.

Even without Michael’s super-intelligences (which will show up sooner or later) the introduction of an open-source universal assembler enabled by nanotechnology and potent narrow AI could do significantly more to liberate the world’s poor than any trickle-down economic growth model or redistributionist scheme. When technology trumps political theory, I go with the technology. The vital question: would such technology be made available through some big government push or through private efforts?

Either. Both. Neither. Take your pick. Maybe if we find a way to talk with each other about these things like reasonable people we’ll come up with a completely new model that’s better than anything we’ve tried before.

Sorry if that wrap-up strikes some of you as being a little Kum bah Yah side, but that’s just me. I have almost as much faith in the power of people working to get along with each other as my friends have in their various political philosophies.

Chapter 6: Wow, I wish I could write a blog entry here at The Speculist that commands the same kind of attention as the blog comment I wrote over at Accelerating Future. So far, that comment has been referenced in posts on:

Accelerating Future
(not the original; a follow-up.)

NextBigFuture

H+

Instapundit (Glenn originally referenced Mike’s IEET essay here.)

I’m assuming that my comments here mark the end of the Tale. But if there are additional chapters I’ll be sure and let you know.

UPDATE: Here’s the mention on Bruce Sterling’s blog that Michael references below.