I’m traveling all this week and can’t make the show. We’ll be back next week.
See? I told you this week’s show would be a surprise!
I’m traveling all this week and can’t make the show. We’ll be back next week.
See? I told you this week’s show would be a surprise!
Here’s a charmer of a quote from the comments section of the article I linked the other day about how a new catalyst enables highly efficient production of hydrogen from water:
Ok why do under developed nations even need power honestly? Can’t they just stay under-developed forever?
I’d like to think this is a joke. Unfortunately, even if it is a joke, it reflects a belief that is held in all seriousness by far too many people: to wit, that there is a case to be made for depriving less developed societies of economic and technological development. The argument begins with the assumption that such development is inherently harmful to the planet. We can’t even afford for the developed world to continue to be developed, the thinking goes. We certainly don’t need any more societies joining our matricidal ranks, toxifying the planet, contributing to mass extinctions, and paving the way for some final, cataclysmic end.
A supporting set of assumptions derive from a highly romanticized view of primitive cultures. Some 18th-century romantic primitivists touted the idea of the Noble Savage, which held that people living in a “state of nature” are not only happier than, but morally superior to, their civilized brethren. And this idea is with us even today. While the phrase “Noble Savage” doesn’t get too much play these days, there are apparently no shortage of individuals who do not doubt for a second the veracity of the scenes depicted on their souvenir Avatar beverage cups from Burger King.
This Noble Savage argument is a sop to the first argument. Since we know that economic and technological development represent nothing but bad news for the planet, and since we know that primitive peoples are healthier, happier, more attractive, and nicer than we are, it woud be wrong even to think about subjecting primitive people to our way of life — even if they think they want it. After all, we know better than they do — they’re a bunch of primitives! (Conveniently, the certitude that they are wiser than we are extends to virtually every subject except this one.)
All right, so let’s deal with these arguments.
1. Economic and technological development cause massive damage to the planet and their proliferation will only cause more damage.
Well, yes and no. There is no question that, historically, human success has come at the expense of many other members of the ecosystem. We’ve done a lot of damage. But that isn’t the whole story. Dirty technologies have enbabled the development of cleaner technologies. Unsustainable practices have set the stage for sustainable ones. In a very real sense, it is human success which has empowered the environmental movement.For the first time in the history of the planet, members of one species are taking steps to prevent the extinction of other species, looking for ways to mitigate and repair damage to the environment, and even talking about one day bringing other species back from extinction.
These astounding trends are the result of economic and technological development. Non-developed cultures may “live in harmony” with nature, but they don’t attempt any of this proactive stuff.
2. Primitive cultures are better off staying primitive.
We’ll leave the assumed moral superiority of primitive cutlures alone. I don’t believe that it is a given (far from it), but let’s take it as a given that primitive cultures are as nice as (or maybe even a liitle nicer than) developed ones. The part of the argument I want to deal with is the part that says that the material well being of people who live in such cultures is as good as or better than what we enjoy.
Anyone who truly believes this to be the case ought to put on a loincloth and move into a grass hut on a riverbank somewhere. Live the rest of your life — or even a few months — without the benefits of modern food production, sanitation, health care, shelter, clothing, communications, and entertainnment…and then come back and tell the rest of us how much better it is. If you really believe it is better, good for you. Back to the hut with you, and thanks for doing your part to help fix the planet.
But if you don’t think it’s better, and in fact you find such a life to be harsh beyond description and not something you want to endure yourself, then please refrain from glibly subjecting other people to it.
Fair?
On last week’s podcast, we touched briefly on the subject of what kind of government / security infrastructure will need to be implemented in a world in which anyone can make, well, anything. I suggested that some kind of powerful enforcement mechanism will have to be put in place, although much of the “policing” might be built into the system itself, and that ultimately we will look for artificial intelligence to perform this particular government function (along with all other government functions.) In the comments section of the show post, DCWhatthe proposes that a “wisdom of crowds” approach might be sufficient.
Michael Anissimov posts an interesting essay responding to criticism of transhumanist thought in which he takes the argument about the need for security to the next level:
The “how†question is where things can get sticky. Most of human existence is not so crime-free and kosher as life in the United States or Western Europe. Business as usual in many places in the world, including the country of my grandparents, Russia, is deeply defined by organized crime, physical intimidation, and other primate antics. The many wealthy, comfortable transhumanists living in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Florida, Boston, New York, London, and similar places tend to forget this. The truth is that most of the world is dominated by the radically evil. Increasing our technological capabilities will only magnify that evil many times over.
The answer to this problem lies not in letting every being do whatever they want, which would lead to chaos. There must be regulations and restrictions on enhancement, to coax it along socially beneficial guidelines. This is not the same as advocating socialist politics in the human world. You can be a radical libertarian when it comes to human societies, but advocate “stringent†top-level regulation for a transhumanist world. The reason why is that the space of possibilities opened up by unlimited self-modification of brains and bodies is absolutely huge. Most of these configurations lack value, by any possible definition, even definitions adopted specifically as contrarian positions to try and refute my hypothesis. This space is much larger than we can imagine, and larger than many naive transhumanists choose to imagine. This is especially relevant when it comes to matters of mind, not just the body. Evolution crafted our minds over millions of years to be sane. More than 999,999 out of every 1,000,000 possible modifications to the human mind would be more likely to lead to insanity than improved intelligence or happiness. Transhumanists who don’t understand this need to study the human mind and looming technological possibilities more closely. The human mind is precisely configured, the space of choice is not, and ignorant spontaneous choices will lead to insane outcomes.
I think the problem with taking a “wisdom of crowds” — or any organic, ground-up approach — to addressing these risks is that the downside is so great. We only have to be wrong once and it’s game over. On the other hand, we can’t let the risks inhibit all forward movement. If the risk-averse don’t take steps to get us to a secure replicator-driven economy, or posthuman future, the risk-non-averse will very likely get us to a dangerous (to say the least) version of each of those.
This sounds like an encouraging development:
With one bottle of drinking water and four hours of sunlight, MIT chemist Dan Nocera claims that he can produce 30 KWh of electricity, which is enough to power an entire household in the developing world. With about three gallons of river water, he could satisfy the daily energy needs of a large American home. The key to these claims is a new, affordable catalyst that uses solar electricity to split water and generate hydrogen.
Sounds very interesting, but let’s not get too excited just yet. While Nocera paints a wonderful picture of every home having its own power generator — which can also produce fuel for the family car — there is some information missing from the linked story.
Wait, we know that this catalyst turns water into a a solar-power generating machine…isn’t that enough? What else do we need to know?
I didn’t think of it myself, but several commenters point out that the linked article makes no mention of how much the catalyst costs to produce, how much it will cost to use (from a consumer standpoint), and what its environmental impact might be.
See? That’s how they get you.
Oh, don’t get me wrong. There could still be something here–something amazing and potentially world-transforming. I have always loved the idea of making hydrogen feasible both as a solar power storage medium and a means of powering vehicles. But let’s not go re planning our whole lives around it until we see a price tag.
UPDATE: Randall Parker looks at another big potential solar breakthrough.
An interesting tidbit from the most recent season of Mad Men (the critically acclaimed drama series about Madison Avenue advertising execs in the early 1960′s) was the depiction of Conrad Hilton as seriously interested in putting a hotel on the moon. I don’t if this is historically accurate, but it was completely believable. It made for a wonderful moment wherein our heroes, having delivered an impressive pitch to Hilton touting his hotel chain’s international cred, are completely deflated when the magnate icily demands to know what happened to the moon.
I ask for the moon and you give me this?
They thought he was being metaphorical about thinking big or something. He wasn’t.
He wanted to put a hotel on the moon.
Maybe he was a little eccentric, or maybe he was just a bit ahead of his time.
How long before a robot gets your job?
Phil and Stephen begin a three part series on the New Economy with Special Guest Martin Ford. Ford’s new book, The Lights in the Tunnel, takes an in depth look at current trends in technology and globalization and examines what the likely economic impact will be in the coming years and decades.
And most importantly, what should we do next? Listen and find out!
Click “Continue Reading” for the show notes:
Here’s our list of essentials to date:
1. Movie or TV show
Field of Dreams | Johnny Quest | Star Trek (all editions) | Blade Runner | 2001: A Space Odyssey | Gattaca | Wall-E | Battlestar Galactica (re-do) | Being John Malkovich | Dr. Zhivago
2. Fiction book
Permutation City | Blood Music | The Golden Age trilogy | Rainbow’s End | A Wrinkle in Time | Burning Chrome collection | Brave New World | Great Sky River | Earth
3. Nonfiction book
It’s Getting Better All the Time: 100 Greatest Trends of the Last 100 years | The Age of Spiritual Machines | The Singularity Is Near | Radical Evolution | Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny | Evolution: The Triumph Of An Idea | Plough, Sword, and Book | Supercrunchers | The Meaning of the 21st Century
4. Website
The Speculist | edge.org | Evo Devo Universe | Instapundit | Google.com | newscientist.com | Wolfram Alpha | Wikipedia | Stratfor.com
5. Event
2003 Foresight Vision Weekend | Founding of the Foresight Institute | Witnessing the in-progress CGI work on the Genesis Planet sequence for Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, the first fully CGI sequence in film history | Accelerating Change 2005 | The World Transformed on FastForward Radio | The Scientific Revolution | Burning Man (back in the day) | The Internet | H+ Summit 2009
6. Person
John Smart | Buckminster Fuller | Aubrey de Grey | Bill Gates | K. Eric Drexler | Karl Popper | Craig Venter | Joseph Campbell | Ray Kurzweil
Thanks to the futurists who have contributed to our list:
Phil Bowermaster | Stephen Gordon | Alex Lightman | Jef Allbright | P. J. Manney | Wayne Radinsky | Sally Morem | David Meskill | Belle Black | Josie Valderrama |
What is it that throws the Speculist Switch? Phil and Stephen review and update the Speculist Essentials — key influences towards developing a FastForward-friendly view of the universe, including: