Home Alone

By | April 17, 2008
9 Comments

I’m an E.T. skeptic. The Fermi Paradox is the reason. The Fermi Paradox asks, reasonably, if intelligent life arises easily and often, then where is everybody? As old as the galaxy is, and considering the possibility of self-replicating Von Neumann probes, we shouldn’t be able to swing a cat without hitting a Vulcan – or at least a robotic emissary.

The most likely answer attacks the premise of the paradox. Intelligent life (at least intelligent life that gives rise to interstellar civilizations) doesn’t arise easily or often. We’re alone. At least in this galaxy.

Some who have accepted this explanation of the Fermi Paradox have posited a depressing reason for E.T.’s absence – perhaps civilizations that reach our level of development tend to self-destruct.

But the great filter for interstellar civilizations doesn’t have to be in front of us. There is a good argument that it is behind us.

[According to Professor Watson from the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia] Solar models predict that the brightness of the sun is increasing, while temperature models suggest that because of this the future life span of Earth will be ‘only’ about another billion years, a short time compared to the four billion years since life first appeared on the planet.

“The Earth’s biosphere is now in its old age and this has implications for our understanding of the likelihood of complex life and intelligence arising on any given planet,” said Prof Watson.

“At present, Earth is the only example we have of a planet with life. If we learned the planet would be habitable for a set period and that we had evolved early in this period, then even with a sample of one, we’d suspect that evolution from simple to complex and intelligent life was quite likely to occur. By contrast, we now believe that we evolved late in the habitable period, and this suggests that our evolution is rather unlikely. In fact, the timing of events is consistent with it being very rare indeed.”

We’re probably alone, but self destruction doesn’t have to be our fate. If we can make it through the next century or so, we stand a fair chance of settling the galaxy.

  • Phil Bowermaster

    It’s not necessarily that intelligence takes a long time to develop relative to the lifespan of the biosphere, it’s that life keeps being reset by these extinction events every few hundred million years. You need not just life, but accumulated complexity to survive. Given a few more million years, the dinosaurs might have made it.

  • Stephen Gordon

    Yep!

  • Phil Bowermaster

    Yes, the Kroffts were way ahead of their time. Which makes me wonder what kind of evolutionary dead-end this guy was supposed to represent.

  • Stephen Gordon

    Snort!

  • Stephen Gordon

    The stability of the star system is a very big deal in the arrival of intelligent life. As you suggested, complexity is the key and complexity requires stress… within tight limits.

    As the earth shattering asteroids diminished (the gas giants get a lot of credit) it allowed more and more time between the major extinction events. Enough time (this last time) for intelligent life to arise.

    But the taming of the solar system took a lot of time.

    Were we to go extinct, there might not be time for another shot at intelligent life in this solar system before the sun becomes too unstable.

  • Karl Hallowell

    Another thing to consider is that intelligent self-reproducing life is extremely dangerous. As I see it, a galactic civilization would have several long term solutions. Either destroy it, modify it so it’s no longer dangerous, or allow it to evolve “naturally” to become a contributing member of your civilization. The last might require a long hands-off period and is certainly the riskiest of the bunch. Much like the “prime directive” of Star Trek.

  • MDarling

    But!!

    The “Drake Formula” starts with a sample of one, and says- “nah- we’re alone.”

    that seems big somehow.

  • MDarling

    And HR Puffnstuff?

    FIts how??

  • Damndirtyape

    This thread is ancient.. but I’ve been listening to older episodes and the subject has come up a lot. Stephen brings up up the paradox a lot but only mentions one or two other options. I can think of MANY reasons we don’t see “them” right now.

    I can think of a lot of things wrong with Fermi’s paradox about why we dont see the universe teeming with life.

    - It assumes that life is not extremely rare in the Universe – perhaps only 3 advanced species exists in the entire universe.
    - It assumes Et’s would want to interact with us. Perhaps they fear contact or deem us not worthy of interaction.
    - It assumes Et’s would want to explore the galaxy or travel from their home system. Just because Humans want to do it now that has no bearing on the motives of alien minds.
    - It assumes that if Et’s did want to explore the galaxy they are doing it now, not millions of years ago. Perhaps they did visit Earth in the distant past but found nothing of interest.
    - It assumes Et’s would be exploring the Universe with technology/methods that we can comprehend/detect. Who says Et’s are operating in the geometry of space time we are restricted to? Or that they are emitting radio waves. Or those radio wave sources are not billions of light years away.
    - It assumes that Et’s would not make every effort to avoid detection if they did have technology similar to our own but advanced far enough to allow interstellar travel
    - It assumes that Et’s would increase in population over time (this geometrically increasing the number of explored planets) – perhaps there are advanced beings but they exist in small numbers and have not been in our neck of the galaxy for quite some time.
    - Perhaps we are in an ET zoo where only limited contact with the specimens is allowed
    - Perhaps Et’s have been here with us all along but are disguised or hidden.
    - Perhaps life is not common in this area of the galaxy or universe
    - Perhaps our “owners/wardens/keepers” ward off any potential visitors from third party ET’s

    These things can combined or stacked:

    For example, what if 2 million years ago Et’s came to Earth and surveyed this planet and left and have now stopped exploring space all togther and their home system is 20,000 light years away and their planets emits no radio waves. We will never ever know of their existence.