Monthly Archives: July 2005

Welcome to the Future!!!

This could very well be the web site that changes your life. No kidding!

Are you ready for the future? Are you sure? And more importantly, is the future ready for you?

We’re so glad to have you here. You’ve landed on an archive page, so if you want to see what we’ve been up to lately, click here. For a quick dose of good news, visit out sister blog, L2si, where we feature dispatches from a rapidly changing, rapidly improving world. Or you can go here to see what’s happening with both blogs and find links to our podcasts.

So please, make yourselves at home. Have a look around. We’re glad to see you!

Carnival of Tomorrow 7.0

GY_5310.jpgOnce again, we open our Carnival of Tomorrow with an image of the “future” that is hopelessly outdated.

But who could have foreseen that robot hands would be made of legos?

Via GeekPress.


Howard Lovy wrote an article for Wired magazine about Dr. James Baker and how his branch of study, nanotechnology, went from science fiction to respected science in a decade.

Wired readers got the cut-down version. Lovy’s blog readers get the “writer’s cut.”


James Clark of Electronic Advances has a fascinating story about how NASA designed for the future…in the past.


J Random American of Ideas in Progress thinks our soldiers should telecommute.

No doubt it would be much safer.

It’s not a new idea (check out the picture attached to this post), and the idea has already been deployed in the air, but we agree that the ground is the next logical step for automated/remote warfare.


Mike of Mike’s Noise explains why overblown environmental concerns may have doomed the Columbia.

The latest shuttle mission has demonstrated that the problem has not been corrected.


Reason at Fight Aging points to a fascinating editorial at MIT Technology Review. The editor, who is not pro-life extension at all, nevertheless wonders why scientists have remained so quiet about Aubrey de Grey’s radical life extension ideas.

If he’s wrong, why not say so?

We can understand not wanting to be that distinguished scientist who said it couldn’t be done – immediately before it is done. Don’t laugh, it happened with airplanes.

On the other hand, scientists also seem to be afraid to risk their reputations to suggest Aubrey might be right. It’s a catch-22, but only for the timid.

Longevity First has more on the call for discussion at MIT Technology Review.


Virginia Postrel of the Dynamist thinks its irresponsible for Apple to be discounting (to children!) the importance of paper books.

We agree, but only because its premature. Let’s perfect electronic paper that’s as easy on the eyes as the real thing, get publishers to use the stuff for all their publications, THEN we’ll talk about reclaiming that shelf space.


Randall Parker critiques the newly passed energy bill at FuturePundit.

Green Car Congress has more.


The honeymoon’s over. Bill Frist breaks with the President on stem cell research.

Good.


Why, when it comes to space, are the Russians the capitalists, and we Americans are the big central-government-types?

Josh Cohen at Multiple Mentality has some thoughts.


Well…American entrepreneurs are developing a private Space Program.

Richard Branson and Burt Rutan announced the creation of a spacecraft building company this week.


The Center for Responsible Nanotech has some more thoughts on the future of NASA.

Meanwhile, Rand Simberg comments on NASA’s grounding of the shuttle fleet. With more thoughts here.


Are you a glutton for future-blogging? Stick around!

  • The future of gene therapy took a huge leap forward recently with the success of ORMOSIL – a man-made gene delivery molecule. It’s a big deal, trust us.

  • What will the world be like when computers become as powerful as the human mind? We’ll know in six years.


Want to participate in the next edition of the Carnival of Tomorrow? Write us:

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See you in the future!

Silicon Mind

KurzweilAI had a huge news day yesterday. My “Winning A Nobel” post started with a Kurzweil link (late hattip). Kurzweil also pointed to an article on nanotech-enabled cancer therapy – and the fact that it’s coming soon.

Then, side-by-side, Kurzweil reported on a project to simulate a mammalian brain, and then reported Japan’s next effort to leap-frog the United States in supercomputer tech.

Japan is planning to build and have running by 2011 a computer that runs at 10 petaflops. If successful it will be 73 times faster than the current titleholder, IBM’s Blue Gene.

10BRAIN_SCAN,0.jpgIn his new book, The Singularity Is Near, Kurzweil offers a range for the computing power of the human brain. The low end of this range happens to be 10 petaflops.

If I’m calculating this correctly, 10 petaflops is ten million times as powerful as today’s best desktop machines.

[If you care to check my math, 10 petaflops is 1 followed by 16 zeros...flops. Desktop computers have a current top speed of 1 billion flops.]

My brain could be a petaflop short of 10 and I’d still see the obvious link between these two stories. IBM and EPFL (and others) are working on the software of the mind, and Japan is hard at work on the hardware. Will we have the equivalent of a human mind running on silicon sometime in the next decade?

Well, obviously both things – software and hardware – have to be working. And, they have to be working together. At present it doesn’t appear that Japan plans to simulate the human mind with its new machine.

The ministry wants to use the planned supercomputer for a wider use such as simulating the formation of galaxy and the interactions between a medicine and the human body.

We don’t ever know all the ways proposed computers will be used until we have them. If mind simulations prove fruitful, Japan might change its plans.

The U.S. is currently planning a petaflop-level computer by 2010. That’s a year earlier, but only 1/10th the power. Maybe we should raise our sights.

Earning A Nobel

Scientists have long been dissatisfied with using viruses to deliver gene therapy. It’s dangerous for the patient, expensive, and impossible to scale up for widespread pharmaceutical purposes. Viral vectors have been useful for experimentation, but have shown little promise in the treatment of patients.

There has to be a better way. And scientists at the University at Buffalo may have found it. Using a form of nanoengineered silicon they’re calling ORMOSIL (amino-functionalized organically modified silica) these scientists delivered genes into the brains of living mice.

A key advantage of the UB team’s nanoparticle is its surface functionality, which allows it to be targeted to specific cells, explained Dhruba J. Bharali, Ph.D., a co-author on the paper…

In their first experiment the UB scientists surgically injected an ORMOSIL/DNA complex that targeted the dopamine neurons within the brain.

It worked.

No toxicity associated with the ORMOSIL nanoparticles was observed four weeks after transfection and the efficiency of the transfection equaled or exceeded results with using viral vectors, they say.

Then, using a new optical fiber in vivo imaging technique (CellviZio), developed by Mauna Kea Technologies, Paris, the researchers were able to observe the brain cells expressing transfected genes without having to sacrifice the animal.

Wow. I’m simply blown away by the leap this represents. They’ve developed a nonviral vector that successfully delivered its DNA load to specifically targeted cells within living animals. Then, they were able to monitor the DNA load doing its job expressing genes, within that living animal. Remarkable. I would have guessed that this sort of development was a decade away.

As if this wasn’t enough, the UB team did a follow-up experiment. With another tailored form of ORMOSIL, these researchers activated adult brain stem/progenitor cells within living mice brains. It was the first time that any scientists have proven that these idle adult stem cells can be activated with gene therapy (of any kind – its never been done with viral vectors). It is believed that these activated adult stem cells can replace neurons destroyed by neurodegenerative diseases.

These scientists believe that a library of ORMOSIL nanoparticles can be developed. Each form of ORMOSIL to target a different tissue.

Somebody’s getting a Nobel.

If you’re keeping score, this news is a big deal because:

  1. Virus vectors are dangerous. ORMOSIL did not trigger an immune response or any form of toxicity – the mice were fine a month later.

  2. Virus vectors are expensive/impossible to scale up for widespread use in patients. ORMOSIL can be easily synthesized by chemists for widespread use.

  3. ORMOSIL worked at least as efficiently as virus (and this is the first generation of this technology).

  4. This team has demonstrated an ability to hit their target, twice. And these scientists believe that a library of these molecules can be developed to target any tissue.

  5. This wasn’t done in a petri dish. This was done in a living mouse.

  6. And they were even able to monitor the gene load being expressed within a living brain using CellviZio.

stereotaxy.png

Happy Moonday

July 20th should, by all rights, be a major American holiday. Moreover, it should be a day commemorated by the entire world — the day men from Earth first set foot on another world.

As always, Rand Simberg provides some good advice on how to commemorate the day properly. He also has some reflections on the Apollo program, and on the space shuttle. Rand suggests that there are more mistakes that need to be owned up to than have been to date. He concludes with these hopeful thoughts:

Before too many more Apollo XI anniversaries roll by, I suspect that there will be many non-NASA personnel on the moon, visiting it with their own money, for their own purposes. And they won’t be getting there in little capsules on large vehicles, that are thrown away after a single use.

I’m kind of hoping they’ll be using this (at least for part of the trip), although I’m not sure it’s quite what Rand has in mind.

google_moon.gif

Everyone is getting in on the celebration

UPDATE: Click the Google graphic to go to “Google: Moon.” Google is using their Maps engine to let you wander around the Moon. Particularly the Apollo landing sites.

We're Movin' On Up


Yeah Frank, it says here that it’s the same kind of work, but closer to the ground.

KurzweilAI points this morning to an interesting article on 3D computer chip designs (a subject Phil and I spoke about in our latest edition of Fast Forward Radio).

The reason that manufacturers would be interested in 3D computer chips is that Moore’s Law (which predicted the exponential improvement of the 2D integrated circuit) will soon fail. Gordon Moore himself said earlier this year that the law will soon fail as transistors reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels.

Just as civil engineers of the 1880s began building skyscrapers in crowded cities, [James] Lu is pioneering chip real estate by developing high-rise, 3-D chips to alleviate congestion in integrated circuits.

This may seem too obvious. You run out of room at the bottom of your beige box for a single layer of integrated chips, just install a second board above it, right?

Well, getting more 2D integrated circuits into your beige box by installing a second board above the first is not an answer to the problem. The key to greater and greater performance of integrated circuits has been a shrinking of the distance between transistors on the chip. The limits of the integrated circuit are not overcome by the sort of 3D computing that is really just 2D computing “folded over” to fit in a box.

What Lu is attempting to do is get the transistors on the second floor working directly with the transistors directly below them on the first floor – as well as the transistors on all sides.

In addition to keeping the computation level of Mr. Spock’s chess set on its exponential track after Moore’s Law has failed, 3D computing could allow other innovations, many that haven’t been imagined yet.

Wafer-level stacking also allows for short connections between different types of chips. “Particularly today the industry is trying to combine memory with the processor, and more than half of the chip is taken up by memory,” Lu explains. “When we stack layers, we have a processor on the bottom and layer the memory on top, with a short access time between them.” Lu says the reduction of memory access time would be a huge advancement for large-scale computer clusters calculating nuclear reactions and weather broadcasting, for example.

And what would be a huge improvement for the big iron guys becomes a huge improvement for we PC users a cycle or two later.

“You are also creating new functionality,” says Nalamasu. “Such technology has vast implications, for example, integrating biochips with silicon chips.

If this would allow different types of computers to work well together, I wonder if this technology could also allow quantum computers to work closely with traditional computers. Quantum computers theoretically offer unimaginable power for a certain class of problems, but are, apparently, useless for other things. This might allow the best of both types of computing.

This Just Seems Like a Bad Idea

 

Todd Grannis, 38, thought it would be fun to propose to his girlfriend via self-immolation.

Considering the subjects we cover here at The Speculist, I could hardly be considered a staunch traditionalist. But this just seems like a bad idea:

Wow. Doesn’t anybody get down on one knee with a ring anymore? Apparently Grannis emerged from the swimming pool unscathed. I’m sure it helped that he was assisted by a professional stunt man.

To me though, the bigger news goes unreported. We have no word on whether this guy’s girlfriend accepted the proposal. A word of advise to the girlfriend Miss Kusiek:

 

RUN! RUN AWAY AS FAST AS YOU CAN!

I’m reminded of that Far Side cartoon “How Nature Says ‘Do Not Touch.’ ” The cartoon showed a series of images that included a porcupine with its quills raised. The last image was of some guy on the street corner wearing a shoe for a hat, a blow-up-floating ring with a duck head, while packing a bazooka.

Anyway, today on my lucky 13th anniversary let me say to my wife:

 

Honey, I love you so much. And (please) allow me to demostrate my love by never setting myself on fire.

Happy Anniversary!

Fast Forward Radio, Episode 5


Radio Craft cov april 1945.jpg

In this episode we discuss those amazing exponentials and how fast they can get away from you – especially when they are feeding back on each other. Translation: the world is on “fast forward.”

We also discuss the Pentagon’s progress with energy beam weapons, and why it has been reluctant to deploy these weapons in Iraq.

And we’re introducing a new feature. Each episode we will showcase a new up-and-coming artist from garageband.com. This week it’s Joe Turley with his swing-band number, Like-I-Do.

Don’t miss it!


Or, download the MP3 File.

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If you’ve missed past episodes of Fast Forward Radio, you can find them all at the Fast Forward Radio webpage.

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Carnival of Tomorrow 6.0

devo.jpgWe begin with John Hawk of the somewhat prosaically yet nonetheless accurately named John Hawk’s Anthropology Weblog, who presents a fascinating essay on human evolution as it stands now. As he explains it, the ways in which we are evolving are changing:

For the most part, the kinds of selection that have been operating in the recent past cannot be shown to be effective today. How many people in Northern Europe are currently dying because of the inability to digest milk effectively as adults? How many Britons does smallpox kill each year? Even trends that currently exist in human health, such as the persistence of malaria and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, are active targets of medical research and public health efforts.

Today, with 6 billion humans, every one-off mutation from the human consensus genome sequence occurs in dozens of people. Many multiple-off mutations occur in some people. In a larger population, selection is more potent, because genetic drift is weaker. This means that the advantageous variants of the next fifty millennia are already appearing in the world today, and may inevitably be selected. The global population is exploring the entire mutational space, many times over, and novel mutations are no longer likely to disappear so rapidly due to genetic drift.

Sounds like evolution may be speeding up. Of course, a system that’s easy on mutations across the board may allow many more bad mutations into the genome than good ones. Could we be looking at the beginning of de-evolution?

Let’s see what our friends in the forward-looking blogosphere have to say.


Of course, there’s more to the ongoing story of human evolution than that which comes from mutation and natural selection. Many of us see evolution as a major do-it-yourself project. The whole life extension movement is really an effort to evolve us into longer-lived beings.

With that in mind, FuturePundit Randall Parker comments on a recent essay by biogerenotolgist Aubrey de Grey which essentially tells us to stop apologizing for wanting to increase human lifespan:

…the purpose of biogerontology is, and should be declared to be, to defeat ageing. …Hastening that advance, therefore, is a legitimate and honourable goal of which we have been ashamed for too long.

Randall sums up the argument thusly:

The desire to live is not dishonorable. The desire for youthfulness is not decadent. We should pursue the goal of full rejuvenation and defeat all human diseases in the process.

Well said, FP.

Glenn Reynolds also had some reflections on Aubrey’s essay, as did Reason from Fight Aging!


Speaking of Reason, he has a bona fide scoop on mitochondrial protofection, which sounds technical but is actually…pretty darn technical! But it’s definitely worth reading about. Reason provides links to some background information on mitochondrial research as well as to an explanation as to why mitochondria are essential to the war on aging.

So come on, don’t be intimidated by the subject matter. Think of this as your big chance to evolve in a slightly geekier direction.


While we’re on the subject of Geeks, Paul Hsieh has been very busy recently pointing out all kinds of evolutionary trends. Let’s begin with the evolution of transportation, with the latest on teleportation research. Then there’s the evolution of human society, being driven by — of all things — the mobile phone (second item). Finally, there’s the evolution of food production, exemplified by meat that doesn’t require killing any animals. (Something we discussed ourselves recently.)


For years there has been talk of using satellites to collect solar energy which could then be microwaved to earth, but the logistical problems in putting such a system in place seemed insurmountable. Now Ironman at Political Calculations has an evolved idea of how such a system could be implemented…on the moon.


In a similar vein, Eric (grumbling as he always does, before the grave) suggests that its time for space exploration to evolve beyond its dependency on the huge NASA bureaucracy.

He recommends a series of publicly funded X-prizes to energize the private sector.


deepimpact.jpgSam Dinkin observes a major milestone in humanity’s evolution as a spacefaring species: the approval of a new spaceport (you’ve got to love that word) in — where else? — Oklahoma.

This comes just a couple weeks after another evolutionary milestone. Humanity has gone from being a species that cowers (or panics) at the site of a comet to one that smashes space probes into them.


And not that it’s related at all, but we are also apparently evolving from being a species that swims with dolphins in the wild to being one that rides inside mechanical dolphins at great speeds.

Oh, and also one that stores information on its fingernails.


So all the available evidence would seem to indicate that evolution is going in the right direction. And here’s the clincher: what else could possibly account for Virginia Postrel describing the new version of one of the cheesiest TV shows * from the 70′s in such glowing terms?


Want to participate in the next edition of the Carnival of Tomorrow? Just write to us:

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Big news: Speculist.com has returned. And FastForward Radio now has it’s own home page. Set those bookmarks, friends.

See you in the future!

* I just know that’s going to get us in trouble. Frack!

The New Iron Age

In our first radio show, Phil brought up an idea for combating the greenhouse gas CO2 that I hadn’t heard before – seeding the oceans with iron. The August edition of Popular Science details several different methods for dealing with Global Warming, but the “iron-the-oceans” idea looks like the most promising. For the record, the other methods discussed are:

  • Store CO2 Underground (which is already being done in small amounts).
  • Filter CO2 From The Air.
  • Turn CO2 To Limestone.
  • Enhancing Cloud Cover.
  • Deflect Sunlight With A Space Mirror.

According to the article, the average American puts 25 tons of CO2 into the atmosphere annually. One-half pound of iron strategically seeded in the right part of the ocean could encourage the growth of sufficient plankton to sequester the typical American’s annual output.

At a lecture more than a decade ago, [oceanographer John Martin] declared: “Give me a half-tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.” He was alluding to the fact that the Southern Ocean is packed with minerals and nutrients but strangely devoid of sea life. Martin had concluded that the ocean was anemic—containing very little iron, an essential nutrient for plankton growth. Adding iron, Martin believed, would cool the planet by triggering blooms of CO2-consuming plankton.

This idea has now been tested.

On January 5, 2002, Revelle, a research vessel operated by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, left New Zealand for the Southern Ocean—a belt of frigid, stormy seas that separates Antarctica from the rest of the world. There the scientists dumped almost 6,000 pounds of iron powder overboard and unleashed an armada of instruments to gauge the results.

The experiment proved that small amounts of iron can encourage the growth of huge plankton blooms.

Some scientists are concerned that cultivating plankton blooms in the South Seas could devour nutrients essential to life in other parts of the ocean. We’d have a nice cool planet with a dead ocean.

Probably every method that Popular Science discussed for reducing atmospheric CO2 has the potential for dangerous unintended consequences. Our planet is such a complicated system, that it may be impossible to know with 100% certainty all effects that any method for reducing CO2 could have.

To prevent unintented consequences on a massive scale, plankton cultivation should be incrementally implemented. If at any point the practice begins to cause a problem, the amount of plankton cultivated could be reduced. And, before beginning, I’m sure the scientific community would want to do extensive modeling with Japan’s Earth Simulator.

Of all the solutions for global warming discussed in the article, only the “iron-the-ocean” solution harnesses life to do the work for us. All the other solutions would require the expenditure of massive amounts of energy – often by burning fossil fuels. But here, we would be using the energy of the sun (via photosynthesis) to cool the planet. This solution to global warming is simply too feasible to be ignored.

“Even if the process is only 1 percent efficient, you just sequestered half a ton of carbon for a dime.”