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	<title>Comments on: Prioritizing the Future</title>
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		<title>By: Leslie Kirschner</title>
		<link>https://blog.speculist.com/scenarios/prioritizing-th.html#comment-4092</link>
		<dc:creator>Leslie Kirschner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I really enjoyed this week&#039;s show, precisely because you attempted to dive into some deep philosophical issues that are always lurking at the edges of futurist discussions (and that are very tricky to navigate on a live talk show!):

1)The Now vs. Future Benefit of policies and programs--especially when the future benefit is so hard to predict (i.e. give a man a fish, or invest in future technology that could provide him with an unlimited supply of fish, but we&#039;re not sure just when or how that will pan out) and when most serious problems have multiple intertwined causes that are not always obvious, making them less simple to &quot;solve&quot; right now than might appear at first glance (e.g. in many parts of the world, hunger is caused as much by current political structures as by actual lack of food). Add in rapidly changing technology and the emotional bias that many have regarding issues like climate change, and it is nearly impossible to forecast and clearly evaluate alternatives. I think Lomborg does a great service by bringing some hard analysis to the problem, whether you agree with his conclusions or not, as does Aubrey deGrey when he posits that if he speeds up an end to aging by even one day, he can save millions of lives.

2)The central/government vs. markets argument about how to solve problems-- many people have a strong bias towards one or the other, but in my opinion it is a false dichotomy. As you pointed out, the answer will often be a hybrid (e.g. government sets up the incentives or boundaries and markets are one option to implement and select alternatives), but it can also be &quot;none of the above&quot; as new structures evolve (think Wikipaedia), and the best approach is to determine what is the most effective role for each of these tools, and more importantly (and rarely mentioned), how should these roles adapt as conditions change over time?

As you also note, the problem with even well thought out institutional solutions is that they are almost never dynamic or flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions. I love how Ray Kurzweil plans his business projects based on where he predicts technology will be at a future date rather than what is possible right now. In that vein, a program to encourage solar power should incorporate expected changes in technology and intelligently allocate resources over time, rather than a &quot;spend it all now&quot; or &quot;spend it all later&quot; choice.

Keep tackling the hard stuff! :-)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I really enjoyed this week&#8217;s show, precisely because you attempted to dive into some deep philosophical issues that are always lurking at the edges of futurist discussions (and that are very tricky to navigate on a live talk show!):</p>
<p>1)The Now vs. Future Benefit of policies and programs&#8211;especially when the future benefit is so hard to predict (i.e. give a man a fish, or invest in future technology that could provide him with an unlimited supply of fish, but we&#8217;re not sure just when or how that will pan out) and when most serious problems have multiple intertwined causes that are not always obvious, making them less simple to &#8220;solve&#8221; right now than might appear at first glance (e.g. in many parts of the world, hunger is caused as much by current political structures as by actual lack of food). Add in rapidly changing technology and the emotional bias that many have regarding issues like climate change, and it is nearly impossible to forecast and clearly evaluate alternatives. I think Lomborg does a great service by bringing some hard analysis to the problem, whether you agree with his conclusions or not, as does Aubrey deGrey when he posits that if he speeds up an end to aging by even one day, he can save millions of lives.</p>
<p>2)The central/government vs. markets argument about how to solve problems&#8211; many people have a strong bias towards one or the other, but in my opinion it is a false dichotomy. As you pointed out, the answer will often be a hybrid (e.g. government sets up the incentives or boundaries and markets are one option to implement and select alternatives), but it can also be &#8220;none of the above&#8221; as new structures evolve (think Wikipaedia), and the best approach is to determine what is the most effective role for each of these tools, and more importantly (and rarely mentioned), how should these roles adapt as conditions change over time?</p>
<p>As you also note, the problem with even well thought out institutional solutions is that they are almost never dynamic or flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions. I love how Ray Kurzweil plans his business projects based on where he predicts technology will be at a future date rather than what is possible right now. In that vein, a program to encourage solar power should incorporate expected changes in technology and intelligently allocate resources over time, rather than a &#8220;spend it all now&#8221; or &#8220;spend it all later&#8221; choice.</p>
<p>Keep tackling the hard stuff! <img src='https://blog.speculist.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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