Comments on: Losing the Edge?

By: Richard Lubbock

Richard Lubbock — Wed, 22 Feb 2006 19:15:43 +0000

I’ve always understood from the remarks of de Grey and Kurzweil that we can expect something like “punctuated equibrium.” That is, the overall upward curve is a kind of sum of the various disjoint advances that happen independently. In the past, sewer systems and vaccinations have contributed to the discontinuous onward trend. It could well be that Dr Tuljapurkar has correctly identified some of those leaps to come, but discounted all the possible others. At the moment I don’t know why he chose to do that.

By: Stephen Gordon

Stephen Gordon — Wed, 22 Feb 2006 15:49:10 +0000

Miki: I must respectfully disagree. This is the classic Tithonus Error - the idea that we might be cursed with everlasting infirmity. For true life extension to work, it must address the problems that make people frail and infirm. Click the link above if you're interested.

By: Miki

Miki — Wed, 22 Feb 2006 15:22:47 +0000

Problem being most of that lifespan extension will be just that – lifespan extension.

Only a fraction of it will end up in our extended healthspans.

By: Karl Hallowell

Karl Hallowell — Wed, 22 Feb 2006 05:47:53 +0000

Apparently he foresees no leaps from accelerating change – no De Grey escape velocity. It’s a odd combination of optimism and linear thinking.

But it fits with the historical record. You got similar gains with the building of public health infrastructure (sewer systems, mass vacinations, etc) and the development of antibotics.