Comments on: Why We Get the Future Wrong https://blog.speculist.com/future/why-we-get-the.html Live to see it. Thu, 16 Dec 2021 08:21:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.6.1 By: Harvey https://blog.speculist.com/future/why-we-get-the.html#comment-4371 Harvey Fri, 20 Mar 2009 21:23:39 +0000 http://localhost/specblog/?p=1845#comment-4371 Thanks for this. I watched the entire video, and suspect I am now better prepared for speculating and decision making.

]]> By: MDarling https://blog.speculist.com/future/why-we-get-the.html#comment-4370 MDarling Fri, 20 Mar 2009 19:54:47 +0000 http://localhost/specblog/?p=1845#comment-4370 also- like th part about how to value
(probability of occurance) * (value of that occurance) = expected value

Think about it in terms of longevity. If I expect to live to 80 yrs old, I may treat risk now at 40-something one way. The value of the less than 40years being one thing.

But since I expect to live to 150yrs old – I treat risk very differently. I got 100 years + to go and the value of that is clearly different than 40 years to go.

]]> By: MDarling https://blog.speculist.com/future/why-we-get-the.html#comment-4369 MDarling Fri, 20 Mar 2009 19:35:33 +0000 http://localhost/specblog/?p=1845#comment-4369 I especially like the part about error in vale because we compare to the past not the future.

And, of course, the last Q in the Q& A at the end.

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