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	<title>Comments on: The Problem with Linear Projections of the Future</title>
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	<link>https://blog.speculist.com/future/the-problem-wit.html</link>
	<description>Live to see it.</description>
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		<title>By: Sally Morem</title>
		<link>https://blog.speculist.com/future/the-problem-wit.html#comment-9877</link>
		<dc:creator>Sally Morem</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2009 17:43:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The other alternative is hinted at in my excerpt:

Work will disappear.  We humans will do other things.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The other alternative is hinted at in my excerpt:</p>
<p>Work will disappear.  We humans will do other things.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Larry</title>
		<link>https://blog.speculist.com/future/the-problem-wit.html#comment-9876</link>
		<dc:creator>Larry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2009 11:40:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[What is the future of work as automation progresses?

Wages for unskilled workers continue to weaken.

The level of skills required to be considered &quot;skilled&quot; keeps rising.

US skill levels are stagnant at best.

Less-skilled jobs in tradeable industries continue to move offshore, furthering downward wage pressure.

So far, technology hasn&#039;t helped us increase skill levels much, except that public health innovations have raised health and accompanying productivity levels. Further improvements to public health don&#039;t promise  incremental productivity benefits. How can technology help with skills?

Today&#039;s crisis features collapsing employment in semi-protected industries like autos. Will those jobs reappear, albeit at competitors, and/or in other countries? Or will the new players apply the latest high productivity technology and build the cars, etc., with far fewer workers?

With increasing lifespans, we&#039;re spending a smaller and smaller fraction of our lives at work. Many middle and upper income people now retire after 30 years and live as retirees for another 30 years or more. Work consumes much less than half their lives. Their forbears often worked for 40-50 years, and they died much younger. I.e., they knew very little other than work.

Do we end up with massive wage subsidies and a higher retirement age to keep people working or do we move to a culture that doesn&#039;t center on work? Is there another alternative?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is the future of work as automation progresses?</p>
<p>Wages for unskilled workers continue to weaken.</p>
<p>The level of skills required to be considered &#8220;skilled&#8221; keeps rising.</p>
<p>US skill levels are stagnant at best.</p>
<p>Less-skilled jobs in tradeable industries continue to move offshore, furthering downward wage pressure.</p>
<p>So far, technology hasn&#8217;t helped us increase skill levels much, except that public health innovations have raised health and accompanying productivity levels. Further improvements to public health don&#8217;t promise  incremental productivity benefits. How can technology help with skills?</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s crisis features collapsing employment in semi-protected industries like autos. Will those jobs reappear, albeit at competitors, and/or in other countries? Or will the new players apply the latest high productivity technology and build the cars, etc., with far fewer workers?</p>
<p>With increasing lifespans, we&#8217;re spending a smaller and smaller fraction of our lives at work. Many middle and upper income people now retire after 30 years and live as retirees for another 30 years or more. Work consumes much less than half their lives. Their forbears often worked for 40-50 years, and they died much younger. I.e., they knew very little other than work.</p>
<p>Do we end up with massive wage subsidies and a higher retirement age to keep people working or do we move to a culture that doesn&#8217;t center on work? Is there another alternative?</p>
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