The Speculist: Global Warming Estimation Methodology Challenged

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Global Warming Estimation Methodology Challenged

This is very interesting:

Researcher: Basic Greenhouse Equations "Totally Wrong"

New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible

Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was.

That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Ames Research Center.

After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week.

"Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount.

How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution.

Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always.

Don't know if Miskolczi is is right -- the math goes over my head pretty quickly on this stuff -- but I find it interesting that his model accurately models climate change on Mars as well as Earth. One of the questions we've had about global warming is why are other planets in the solar system -- where they don't have a greenhouse gas problem -- warming up at about the same rate as Earth? Miskolczi may have the answer.

I should point out that I found this story following the very interesting discussion about Global Cooling over at Jerry Pournelle's site. The discussion follows this original item.

Anecdotally, based on the last two Colorado winters, global cooling feels a lot more likely to me. But then, we don't really want to come to conclusions about this stuff based on anecdotal data points.

This, on the other hand, wasn't just anecdotal.

Comments

Typical denialist idiocy. For the science debunking this nonsense see:
http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/03/hansen-throws-cold-water-on-cooling-climate-claim/
and:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=536


Mark --

Your first link has no bearing on -- certainly provides no "debunking" of -- the main thrust of this entry, which is Miskolczi's published work questioning the greenhouse gas methodology. The second link has no relevance to anything in this blog.

Howdy all, been a while. There's a couple of cautions here even if the math is right. First, the feedback may be insignificant. For those that use the Milne model, there's good reasons that those boundary conditions were chosen, namely because they thought it wasn't significant. Second, we don't know who actually uses the old model. It's unlikely, for example, that most computer models use it. correcting an obselete model wouldn't actually mean much.

BTW, isn't it odd how some story genres seem to collect link dumpers? I've been seeing the same thing with diet stories. I assume any gab about finance, mortgages, or green cards might pick up a few too. It tastes oddly like spam.

Karl --

Welcome back, We've missed you, bud.

You want see link dumpage? Write something about ethanol. No matter how careful you are to distance yourself from corn-based ethanol and government subsidies and that whole mess, you'll get a bunch of links on the subject.

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